Coronavirus Outbreak [COVID-19]

DB Cooper

peel me a grape
May 17, 2013
21,595
9,653
Reactions: Leftsmash

DB Cooper

peel me a grape
May 17, 2013
21,595
9,653
So close to zero again today for Victoria, with only 2 new COVID cases.

No deaths again too.

Recent daily numbers 5, 10, 13, 15, 7, 15, 12, 9, 15, 6, 11, 11, 14, 12, 15, 12, 7, 6, 2, 1 and now 2.

Our rolling 14 day average down to about 7.5.


Premier Daniel Andrews about to start his press conference where we find out what will change as a result of the good numbers.
 

DB Cooper

peel me a grape
May 17, 2013
21,595
9,653
Andrews reports today that for Victoria :

137 total live cases
10 live cases in aged care facilities.
12 in hospitals
0 on respirators

Key rewards effective tomorrow :

5 klm radius increased to 25 klms
No time limits for exercise and shopping
Non essential repairs approved
10 people can meet together outdoors
Hairdressers reopen

Many things to revert back to (almost) normal on November 1st dependent on the numbers.
 
Reactions: Leftsmash
Aug 11, 2013
549
263
Andrews reports today that for Victoria :

137 total live cases
10 live cases in aged care facilities.
12 in hospitals
0 on respirators

Key rewards effective tomorrow :

5 klm radius increased to 25 klms
No time limits for exercise and shopping
Non essential repairs approved
10 people can meet together outdoors
Hairdressers reopen

Many things to revert back to (almost) normal on November 1st dependent on the numbers.
And if it blows up again back in your cages?
 
Jun 6, 2013
1,259
741
Going to the rally today in Liverpool to challenge this bullshit people are loosing their businesses and lively hoods government shutting business down and providing no funding its a disgrace, cancer patients not being treated, deaths from suicide, people need to wake up.
 

Jack

P4P Star
Jul 29, 2012
9,519
4,085
While I agree with that you are are saying in part, that wasn't what I was saying in that particular post in regards to contact tracing. What I was saying is contact tracing is only effective when dealing with small numbers. If were dealing with say 10-50 cases it's far easier to track down maybe a few hundred people that have come in contact with these people to get them tested and to isolate compared to 20k cases and the possible 100k contacts they may need contact. Contact tracing as a tool even with a cooperative population is only effective when dealing with a manageable number of cases.
Yeah, I think that's fair. When you've got several hundred thousand people being tested every day and high numbers who have it, plus high numbers of people avoided tests, plenty who are falsely putting in symptoms on the app etc., then it just becomes a chaotic system. It's impossible for it to ever work I think, but obviously once "test and trace" became part of our every day vernacular, the government had to come up with something.

Considering the app works well and the testing we're doing is amongst the best in the world, we should have one of the most effective test and trace systems in the world. Testing 300,000 people a day when a country like Netherlands can manage around 20,000 a day (despite being a rich country with 17m people) is remarkable. In terms of tests being done, the only populous nations doing more per capita than the UK are Denmark, UAE and Israel, so it's obviously impressive but it just goes to show how ineffective it is without the willingness of the public.

Testing isn't just about funding like you say. The government have been under fire for testing for ages and they are of course trying to increase capacity their target is to get 500k tests per day by the end of the month, still far short of the required to do what you suggest. There's almost 300k tests done per day now and your asking for another possible 881k tests per day on top of that, doesn't matter how much money you throw at this there is a limit to how many labs we have and how many qualified people we have to work in these labs. Not to mention we'll need to get much larger quantities of the ingredients for these tests which we've had issues with even when doing the number of cases were currently doing.
Even if you're right - and it's not a point I'm that fussed about because the numbers are vast - then you'd just have to take that on the chin. If you can't fully test every carer or you can't fully ensure that every vulnerable person is entirely safe then that's just something we'd have to accept. I'm not saying that there's a system which could easily be brought in that's perfect; we should strive for perfection, absolutely, but if you do fall short in any area, such as testing every carer daily, then because the consequences of long lockdown is so damaging, it's still a more positive outcome. If you can only test 600,000 people per day, then that's fine, it doesn't have to be a perfect answer because even if you get 50% of the way to being an ideal response, it's still drastically better that the historically bad disaster that lockdown has been.

I heard something a few days ago about lockdown being the equivalent to trench warfare in WWI and it's such an accurate analogy. The policy is terrible, it does nothing but waste lives but because the alternatives haven't been tried or proven, it's assumed that trench warfare is the right way to go. That we must suffer tremendous losses for those inches of land, because there's not been an alternative yet. I'm fine with people saying the suggestions I've made fall short of perfect, I've said many times that it'd be difficult, but I don't think we should expect perfection. What we should want is something better than what we've already done and considering lockdown has has been such an appalling disaster, that's not difficult to do.
 
May 25, 2013
7,926
4,562
Yeah, I think that's fair. When you've got several hundred thousand people being tested every day and high numbers who have it, plus high numbers of people avoided tests, plenty who are falsely putting in symptoms on the app etc., then it just becomes a chaotic system. It's impossible for it to ever work I think, but obviously once "test and trace" became part of our every day vernacular, the government had to come up with something.

Considering the app works well and the testing we're doing is amongst the best in the world, we should have one of the most effective test and trace systems in the world. Testing 300,000 people a day when a country like Netherlands can manage around 20,000 a day (despite being a rich country with 17m people) is remarkable. In terms of tests being done, the only populous nations doing more per capita than the UK are Denmark, UAE and Israel, so it's obviously impressive but it just goes to show how ineffective it is without the willingness of the public.

Even if you're right - and it's not a point I'm that fussed about because the numbers are vast - then you'd just have to take that on the chin. If you can't fully test every carer or you can't fully ensure that every vulnerable person is entirely safe then that's just something we'd have to accept. I'm not saying that there's a system which could easily be brought in that's perfect; we should strive for perfection, absolutely, but if you do fall short in any area, such as testing every carer daily, then because the consequences of long lockdown is so damaging, it's still a more positive outcome. If you can only test 600,000 people per day, then that's fine, it doesn't have to be a perfect answer because even if you get 50% of the way to being an ideal response, it's still drastically better that the historically bad disaster that lockdown has been.

I heard something a few days ago about lockdown being the equivalent to trench warfare in WWI and it's such an accurate analogy. The policy is terrible, it does nothing but waste lives but because the alternatives haven't been tried or proven, it's assumed that trench warfare is the right way to go. That we must suffer tremendous losses for those inches of land, because there's not been an alternative yet. I'm fine with people saying the suggestions I've made fall short of perfect, I've said many times that it'd be difficult, but I don't think we should expect perfection. What we should want is something better than what we've already done and considering lockdown has has been such an appalling disaster, that's not difficult to do.
The app isn't working well, not sure where you've gotten that idea from. It was reported that people have been getting errors where alerts pop up and disappear. They apparently fixed it with an update 2 days ago, but I got another such error alert today, so clearly it didn't work.

Even if the app does eventually work as it should, it's still not as good as the GPS style apps that have been used in Asia which actually track your location, which is why were having to use QR codes to let the app know where we've been. But I get that the UK population in general is not very trusting in regards to being tracked so it's the trade off we have to have to ensure enough people download the app.

"Taking it on the chin" is just another was of saying acceptable losses. What are these acceptable losses, another 40k dead?

While yes a long lockdown is very damaging and will have long term repercussions for many people should the economy tank it's a matter of short term pain to avoid possibly worse long term pain. Many have said that the idea there's no economic impact from avoiding lockdowns is a false presumption. Sweden didn't lock down but still got hit economically, US ended lockdown early and have been trying to go on as normal but they took a hit to their GDP far bigger than many countries that locked down for longer.

Simply cocooning the vulnerable, even if that was possible and then everyone else going on as normal could see a far worse outcome than lockdown. If large numbers of the population end up ill their will be wide spread disruption, we could see food supply chains under greater pressure than during the first wave. We could see critical industries crippled as huge numbers of their workforce become ill. Lockdown isn't just about saving lives it's about ensuring critical industries don't get shut down which could see wide spread panic and civil unrest. This was all discussed during the first wave but now the government seems to be ignoring it and focusing on the short term economic pain rather than the potentially greater disaster that could be coming. But I guess that's human nature we seem so concerned about right now and never think long term.
 
Reactions: Dazl1212 and Haggis

Ernest Shackleton

Moderate Assadist
Jun 8, 2013
16,765
6,689
The app isn't working well, not sure where you've gotten that idea from. It was reported that people have been getting errors where alerts pop up and disappear. They apparently fixed it with an update 2 days ago, but I got another such error alert today, so clearly it didn't work.

Even if the app does eventually work as it should, it's still not as good as the GPS style apps that have been used in Asia which actually track your location, which is why were having to use QR codes to let the app know where we've been. But I get that the UK population in general is not very trusting in regards to being tracked so it's the trade off we have to have to ensure enough people download the app.

"Taking it on the chin" is just another was of saying acceptable losses. What are these acceptable losses, another 40k dead?

While yes a long lockdown is very damaging and will have long term repercussions for many people should the economy tank it's a matter of short term pain to avoid possibly worse long term pain. Many have said that the idea there's no economic impact from avoiding lockdowns is a false presumption. Sweden didn't lock down but still got hit economically, US ended lockdown early and have been trying to go on as normal but they took a hit to their GDP far bigger than many countries that locked down for longer.

Simply cocooning the vulnerable, even if that was possible and then everyone else going on as normal could see a far worse outcome than lockdown. If large numbers of the population end up ill their will be wide spread disruption, we could see food supply chains under greater pressure than during the first wave. We could see critical industries crippled as huge numbers of their workforce become ill. Lockdown isn't just about saving lives it's about ensuring critical industries don't get shut down which could see wide spread panic and civil unrest. This was all discussed during the first wave but now the government seems to be ignoring it and focusing on the short term economic pain rather than the potentially greater disaster that could be coming. But I guess that's human nature we seem so concerned about right now and never think long term.
The two countries which lockdown the hardest in the world have the biggest death tolls: Peru and Panama.
Japan no lockdown had 1600 deaths and reached community immunity.

Death toll is a reflection of a countries demographics: age structure and population density coupled with the general health of a nation (diet, obesity)
 
Reactions: beat down
May 25, 2013
7,926
4,562
what happend to the track and trace ? you said they weren’t tracking you apparently they are passing your name address to the police ?

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/uk/long-arm-of-the-law-covid-app-users-to-be-tracked-by-police/
I said they weren't tracking your location via GPS on your phone, which they are not. Police knowing your address is hardly some sensitive piece of information, I mean every courier that's delivered a parcel to me knows my address, wait so does my post man, whatever will we do!!!
 
Reactions: DB Cooper
May 25, 2013
7,926
4,562
The two countries which lockdown the hardest in the world have the biggest death tolls: Peru and Panama.
Japan no lockdown had 1600 deaths and reached community immunity.

Death toll is a reflection of a countries demographics: age structure and population density coupled with the general health of a nation (diet, obesity)
You've got it backwards they had to lock down harder because they have so many cases unless your saying lockdown causes Covid lol.

Japan do not have community immunity how did they do that with so few cases and they are still getting several hundred cases per day much like we were during the summer, did we get herd immunity lol. We know herd immunity without a vaccine is a fallacy as immunity doesn't last very long.
 
Reactions: DB Cooper
Jun 6, 2013
1,259
741
I said they weren't tracking your location via GPS on your phone, which they are not. Police knowing your address is hardly some sensitive piece of information, I mean every courier that's delivered a parcel to me knows my address, wait so does my post man, whatever will we do!!!
The whole idea is they give your address to the police so they check up that you have been self isolating or adhering to the rules and if not fine you, hence the track and trace was to keep a check up on you which you said it wasn’t maybe not buy GPS but other ways. The post man doesn’t fine you £1000.
 
Reactions: Judgemental John