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Avanesyan vs. Kelly Winner and How?

David Avanesyan (EBU) vs. Josh Kelly - February 20th 2021

RBR!!! 
9K views 153 replies 34 participants last post by  Michael 
#1 ·
 
#3 · (Edited)
Thats kind of odd...either Eddie Hearn has greater faith in Josh Kellys Skills.

Or he has great faith in Josh Kellys chin...so he knows if the fight goes to points there will be only one winner.

Or he has decided Josh Kelly is not a big ticket seller...and is not worth the paychecks he is getting so let him earn his way to the top with tough fights.

Or he has simply decided that Conor Benn is the better investment will generate more revenue in the future. Build a manufatured record for Benn and taking him towards a title shot, instead.

Let Kelly on the other hand "Sink or Swim."
 
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#5 ·
I assume he'll be sticking with ITV. Would they dare to stick something like that on PPV? :sad5
Thats kind of odd...either Eddie Hearn has greater faith in Josh Kellys Skills.

Or he has great faith in Josh Kellys chin...so he knows if the fight goes to points there will be only one winner.

Or he has decided Josh Kelly is not a big ticket seller...and is not worth the paychecks he is getting so let him earn his way to the top with tough fights.

Or he has simply decided that Conor Benn is the better investment will generate more revenue in the future. Build a manufatured record for Benn and taking him towards a title shot, instead.

Let Kelly on the other hand "Sink or Swim."
All these things make sense to me. He clearly isn't the prospect everyone was led to believe so Eddie doesn't really care whether he ' sinks or swims ' particularly with Avanesyan on the Spain Matchroom shows. Hes going to have to get a world title fight on either the Spanish or Italian shows soon and Avanesyan or Patera seem the only options. I find Kelly's fights tedious to be honest though he could go the distance and then it's up to who Eddie wants to win. That maybe Avanesyan.
 
#6 · (Edited)
They all make sense, and they are a little sad too.

PBK is handsome and made the British olympic team in 2016. Against journeymen he looked impressive, showboating a bit, and the public loved it, and probably Hearn too, as he thought he might have a star in the making. Three years later, there has been a lot of talk, and the progress hasn't been that good. He was supposed to step up or at least get a good win on his record against Avanesyan a year ago, but withdrew hours before the fight. That was one attraction less on a card that already was struggling, and Avanesyan only got some compensation and not the payday he was supposed to get. A lot of noise that I am sure Hearn did not like. At first the fight was to be rescheduled, only for Booth and Kelly to postpone signing a new deal until Avanesyan felt he had to move on and got a good offer from MGZ in Spain to fight for the EBU title. Instead Kelly fought what looked like a pumped up lightweight (undefeated Runowski who was 17-0 but abandoned by his promoter and coach, father of several kids and probably in dire need for some cash, possibly before leaving boxing as a full time pro), in what supposedly a fight where Hearn expected PBK to shine. Instead he got hit a lot, and at some point in the fight was dancing and showboating against the ropes meters away from his opponent seconds after looking like he was shocked when the other guy did not follow the script and hit him numerous times. In the hours after the fight PBK retweeted dozens of messages that spoke well about him, while he probably blocked just as many who weren't impressed about him. Several posted in social media that seemed like clear signs of delusion and narcissism. Thereafter he was put on the AJ-Ruiz card in the MSG, to shine in front of the American public. He got a draw, which was about fair as the judges could have scored it either way, but more importantly he did not look good once again, and at some point in round 7 or so, it seemed like he had gassed out and Robinson could have stopped him on a TKO. Then he hasn't fought in half a year, gets a super lightweight with a pumped up 31-6-6 record and three losses and a draw in his last five, as a warm up match but also a chance to shine in a DAZN/SKY televised event in the US. Josh Taylor, as a super lightweight, stopped Campos in three in march 2018, and I am sure Hearn expected PBK weighing in at 150 pounds against Campos's 148 should do no worse than Taylor did. Instead, he goes the distance, gets hit and cut, and does not impress anyone. There's obviously no progression from when he actually looked good against Kris George for the Commonwealth title 1.5 years ago.

End of story, Hearn probably thinks it is time to find out how good PBK really is when he is up against David Avanesyan, who looks very fit, confident, and on a good run to get another title shot. The EBU is a step up from the Commonwealth title, and in addition to making money and creating a legacy, boxing is also about winning titles. If he can't beat Avanesyan, that won't be the end of PBK's career, but it does mean that Hearn will stop investing in him. As I see it, for three reasons. First, while PBK is handsome and looks slick against journeymen, he also needs to be competitive against top contenders, and win titles. The EBU is a good title to have on the resume, but it is nevertheless one level below eliminator and top contender level status. He has other 2016 Olympians and prospects he could just as well try to make into superstars, such as Besputin and Yeleussinov. Besputin is now the regular WBA champ, and after a slow start to his pro career, Yeleussinov has a record not very different from PBK's. Second, Kelly was signed by Hearn at a time when British boxing had a peak in popularity, with AJ becoming a super star, and just about anyone with a British passport could be passed as a forthcoming boxing star. Now, AJ has had a defeat, some of the best British fighters in the last decades have quit, and there are few guys that can step up to replace them. Hearn was hoping that could be PBK, but that has not materialised yet. If it's gonna be, it has to happen soon. This year a guy like Ted Cheeseman was chosen to headline a show in the UK. He is not an olympian, and doesn't have the looks of PBK, but if he got the talent and delivered, he would have been supported by Hearn. Unfortunately, Cheeseman too started believing in his own hype as he was looking beyond Sergio Garcia and seemed in the pre fight interviews to be more focused on inheriting Garcia's rankings, become the #1 super welter in the UK after Brook, and believing he could get a title shot. He was outboxed and humiliated. I think that loss in particular showed to Hearn that if he does not have the British talents, he has to look beyond the UK, both in terms of creating stars for the casuals, and taking advantage of his DAZN expansion to countries like Italy and Spain, and others to follow. I think his focus is more into that now, than spending money on PBK and any similar British fighter, until the Brit has proven himself. Cheeseman failed, whereas for example Sam Eggington came back with an impressive stoppage win in a Matchroom Italy show, to gain an IBF international title. I think that is the kind of courage and results Hearn wants to see. There will be less pimped up records for British fighters, and instead they need to prove themselves. If not, they will be replaced by guys like Avanesyan or Sergio Garcia from Spain.

Third, 2020 is a new Olympic year. I believe Hearn now wants to see who is who in the class of 2016. That means that guys like PBK has 7-8 months now to convince him he is worth the money. If not, PBK will need to rebuild his career on the undercard of shows in the UK, or headline shows in Italy or Spain like Eggington did. This does not only go for PBK, but also boxers such as Conlan, who did not look impressive against Nikitin.

Finally, the showboating and ducking Avanesyan has also made PBK look a bit stupid and cowardly. Even the casuals don't like that. The only thing that can turn things around for PBK is a convincing win against Avanesyan, without the showboating or any mess between the camps before or after that fight. I think Hearn is tired of all of that, for someone who is not yet fighting for a world title.

Looking at that last interview of PBK after his fight with the Nicaraguan journeyman, it seems like PBK himself is also starting to realise now that the forthcoming fight against Avanesyan could be the beginning of the end of his career, or at least the hyped up wanna be career that he had envisioned himself when he decided to impersonate the style and moves of fighters who had the abilities to box like showmen, against elite fighters. That was all wishful thinking, and time is short to change things around now.

I hold Avanesyan a 70/30 favourite against PBK. He is on a run, is fit, has improved lately, has fast hands, and he seems to have the power now to stop fighters too. Hopefully there is nothing suspicious about Avanesyan's late career improvements. A win for DA would at least make him qualify for an eliminator match, or even a world title shot. As he has a three fights contract with Matchroom/DAZN and the fight with PBK is the second, my guess is that the winner of PBK and DA will meet the WBA regular champion. For PBK, a win would probably mean no changes to his style, and he'd still be a nasty KO waiting to happen. Even with the win, I'm not sure if Hearn will be completely convinced, at least not if it is an even fight where the A-side fighter gets the win, like PBK got the draw against Robinson. A loss for either man would mean different things. For DA he might loose that title shot he is now eyeing to happen, whereas for PBK it probably means losing Hearn's favour, and having to rebuild his career, hopefully by developing better fundamentals and no showboating. Unfortunately, I don't think that will mean too much for PBK's career. Without Hearn's power in the boxing market, I see him at best as a European champion and a fringe contender. The only reason he has been hyped to be more than that is because he is British, a former onlympian, handsome, and has been promoted by Hearn. Had he been say Spanish, he would have been on a much longer road, until winning an EBU title might have (after defending it in the UK or shown on e.g. DAZN abroad) made the casuals and someone like Hearn aware of him and his abilities. Having seen how Sergio Garcia outclassed Ted Cheeseman, I think Hearn now sees that it is 'sink or swim' for PBK. If PBK sinks, he better put his money on Avanesyan and make him a world title fight. At the end of the day, even the casuals want to see good boxing and the best fighting the best.
 
#26 ·
Just a boxing news 24 article, not saying much not yet said about these fighters and their recent bouts.

https://www.boxingnews24.com/2020/01/david-avanesyan-vs-josh-kelly-done-deal-for-late-march/

I am starting to think Hearn is setting up this fight to perhaps part ways with Kelly should he lose. The last fights have been tailor made for Kelly, but rather than gaining a larger fan base in the UK and the US, his popularity has folded and many even turned against him. Should Kelly win though, without any showboating and utilising good fundamental skills, I guess he'll get a voluntary EBU defence against someone easy to beat, and later down the road the Conor Benn fight. Whatever the outcome though, he won't be fast tracked anymore. Should Avanesyan win, there is the WBA regular title waiting (now that Besputin is in doping trouble), or perhaps a fight against Crawford?
 
#32 ·
Card so far:



Boxrec: https://boxrec.com/en/event/802748

Some interviews:

Interview with trainer Carl Greaves about the upcoming fight Kelly - Avanesyan, and his opinion on Fury-Wilder etc., then returns to the match JK-DA again.



Interview with Avanesyan by same interviewer:



Jump to 1.08.20 to hear another interview with David Avanesyan and Carl Greaves. 4 years since the last time he was interviewed on the show. Talks about his wins against Kerman Lejarraga in Spain and the way forward. Seems like Lejarraga and his team and other fans from Bilbao might be going to the O2 to support Avanesyan. Avanesyan and Greaves will return to the podcast after the fight against Kelly.



Article based on an interview with Kelly's trainer Adam Booth about his new gym in the latest Boxing Monthly, including an assessment of some of the boxers he is training now, such as Kelly:



Full article in the March 2020 issue: https://www.boxingmonthly.com/current-edition/
 
#36 ·
i reckon this will end up getting called off.
Cant see it being a massive ticket selling event...
Hearn said the event had sold 4600 out of 5000 tickets when it was called off. Guess the fight will go on as Kelly is mandatory for the EBU fight and Hearn signed a three-fights contract deal with Avanesyan, and this is the second fight. If Avanesyan wins, Hearn will place him in a title fight (my guess is the WBA regular title, with Besputin if he is cleared with his B-test, or for a vacant title shot). If Kelly wins, he has proven himself against a possible top ten welter and can be expected to headline a show up north in the UK, defending his EBU title. Whatever happens to Kelly in this fight though, I think Hearn has realised Kelly needs more experience and getting rid of his flaws before he can move him up. Yes, kelly could also be fed to Besputin or to Crawford for a money-making fight, but after that his career as a British ticket/PPV-seller is over. He would get exposed completely. Avanesyan though I believe could beat Besputin now, and also give Crawford the same level of opposition as Kavaliauskas did. Thus loose, but still stayng relevant in the division, as crawford is still one of the best P4P. If Spence does not return any time soon, I guess the winner of Lipinets - Abduakhorov for the interim IBF tiitle could also be someone for Avanesyan to fight next, should he beat Kelly convincingly.

That Hearn wants this fight put on the undercard of another fight also tells me that most likely Kelly - Avanesyan will go ahead soon, on the undercard of a likely PPV event that will be boxed behind closed doors. No spectators, and no place for Kelly to flee.
 
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