Elon Musk venture updates: Tesla - Cybertruck - SpaceX - Starlink - Neuralink - Boring Company

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
11,634
2,185
Tycho Station
Some are comparing recent Tesla rise to Dotcom bubbles that ended up pretty bad, others to Bitcoin's epic rise from $380 to $19000 in 2 years, before that bubble burst early 2018. Tesla could potentially rise significantly more based on market sentiment, followed by a huge drop (good news for any shorter if still left), tho it needs to be said that at $9000 price Bitcoin still looks pretty good compared to that $380.

9775

But Musk is more focused on SpaceX now. Besides multiple sites being very busy building parts, SpaceX is now in a hiring spree and will hold a career day at the Boca Chica, Texas site tomorrow. They simple need more engineers and supervisors to scale production, also a sign more tests (and likely test failures) are to follow smaller scale stuff. These could be the outer stainless still rings of the SN01 prototype, built for sub-orbital launch somewhere in the next 6 months.
 

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
11,634
2,185
Tycho Station
News of Shanghai Gigafactory not re-opening after festivities due to coronavirus and also some 'sell' financial advises has the stock turned back toward realistic numbers, now around the 760s, but settling anywhere between 500-600 would still mean a massive gain over the last few months. Shorters feel a little better today.
 

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
11,634
2,185
Tycho Station
As Tesla stock is going up and down as Ronnie O'Sullivan puts it, like a whore's drawers, Elon is seemingly setting up Gigafactory 5 in 'merica. He recently polled to see if ppl. are interested in Giga Texas, and 80% was positive. It's probably just a publicity stunt but such a polling was quickly followed by Giga Berlin announcement. Giga Texas sounds nuts since it's an oil state producing more barrels than all other US states combined, has strong oil lobby and its preventing both direct Tesla sales and servicing. This means only dealerships and service partners who live and die by the oil and have utmost interest to make EVs as undesirable as possible are responsible by law to sell and service EVs, which per Tesla argument is unconstitutional.



Things could change rapidly however if Tesla offers thousands of jobs in a state that's just getting started on greens and sustainability, something they'll need to improve for decades if fossil fuel era is coming to a close. Tesla could potentially make the sate remove sales bans and offer great economical growth in return. SpaceX is happy down there in Boca Chica as Texas has a large talent pool, lots of manufacturing expertise, souls for hire, space for huge fabs and climate for solar panel farms.



It is also a truck state with experience in stainless steel, and that bodes perfectly for local Cybertruck production. Fremont is at full capacity with Model Y ramp and Nevada cannot possibly hire more with housing shortages. Cybertruck needs a new place and a Gigafactory for efficiencies to meet cost and demand, not to mention Cybervariations based on the original concept. Then there are the rumors of Model 2, a small, cheap EV that would require even more straightforward manufacturing. Still, for all of this, April's battery and drive tech positive news is necessary since even Tesla is constrained by limited battery production. Once that figured out, Giga 5 might come sooner than most expect, as you need to make your Cybertrucks and Roadster 2020s somewhere.

 

ant-man

Opticians rob you blind.
Jun 11, 2014
10,269
9,010
Round and about
Whether electric or petrol powered, cars will continue to clog up roads, open spaces, and mortuaries until we lose our obsession with them.

Drastic speed reduction, enforced through chip limiters, and controlled ownership is the first step.
 
Reactions: Clarence Worley

Broxi

Literal Communist
Jul 24, 2012
8,855
8,689
Starship Update:

https://www.nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/3439?fbclid=IwAR2XVRME4vasv8xEZ2S94wwumrYoQ1uA5ehwjDtKnBI6rfKwcX0SqZJBa4I

Status
Suborbital
20 Kilometer Test Flight
Launch Time -
NET Mar 16, 2020

Status: Active
Liftoff Thrust: 6,000 kN
Stages: 1
Strap-ons: 0
Rocket Height: 50.0 m

Mission Details
20 Kilometer Test Flight
SpaceX will conduct a suborbital test flight of the Starship SN1 prototype to an altitude of 20 kilometers. It will perform a propulsive landing on SpaceX's South Texas Landing Zone after launch.
Suborbital

 

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
11,634
2,185
Tycho Station
Starship Update:

https://www.nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/3439?fbclid=IwAR2XVRME4vasv8xEZ2S94wwumrYoQ1uA5ehwjDtKnBI6rfKwcX0SqZJBa4I

Status
Suborbital
20 Kilometer Test Flight
Launch Time -
NET Mar 16, 2020

Status: Active
Liftoff Thrust: 6,000 kN
Stages: 1
Strap-ons: 0
Rocket Height: 50.0 m

Mission Details
20 Kilometer Test Flight
SpaceX will conduct a suborbital test flight of the Starship SN1 prototype to an altitude of 20 kilometers. It will perform a propulsive landing on SpaceX's South Texas Landing Zone after launch.
Suborbital

Good times! NET March 16 just means no earlier than that date (and no later than September 16 per current licence), actually building and testing the damn thing might take longer. I know Musk is eager to see it launch soon even if it fails (quite spectacularly, most likely), he wants those data points at MaxQ which should be around 11 km above ground.

Now surviving even 20 kms in one piece under that thrust and load would be a small miracle in Starship's first ever ride, but to actually use all them Raptor engines to perform propulsive landing is a whole different level of complexity. I can see Starship reaching orbit before they can properly land, tho probably neither this year...

SpaceX is also readying the latest Crew Dragon capsule to ship to NASA for inspection and installation on the preferred Falcon 9. They will also check those new chutes. While a March launch sounds feasible, if everything goes well NASA will likely skip the demo mission and go straight for a longer ISS visit, which means more training for assigned astronauts and a NET launch of May, rumors say.
 
Reactions: Broxi

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
11,634
2,185
Tycho Station
2nd critical Boeing Starliner error found by NASA, near-future launch in question

https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/6/21127127/boeing-starliner-spacecraft-nasa-safety-software-glitch-catastrophic


Boeing can't seem to catch a break in their own systematic undoing. The December unmanned fight test to dock with the ISS was unsuccessful as wrong system clocks lead to thrusters not intended to fire up did, putting the crew capsule into wrong orbit, with no chance of an ISS rendezvous. Boeing and NASA did successfully do some tests and returned the capsule safely, and since Boeing is skipping an in-flight abort test (they demonstrated pad abort), NASA may or may not send astronauts to ISS on Starliner in the upcoming months, before or after SpaceX's Crew Dragon.

Well, those plans are in question as NASA revealed a second critical software error that could've led to catastrophic capsule failure upon reentry. Apparently, software could've mistakenly fired up thrusters upon descent, losing control of the craft that needs precise angle due to heat and pressures, also possibly bumping into own parts Starliner otherwise releases safely and with proper distance. To prevent that possibility, mission control had to manually override such action.

In a statement on Thursday night, Boeing told The Verge that it “investigated a valve mapping software issue, which was diagnosed and fixed in flight.” The company says the “error in the software would have resulted in an incorrect thruster separation and disposal burn,” adding that “what would have resulted from that is unclear.” On Friday, NASA finally released a statement of its own, detailing how both software bugs went unnoticed before the launch, “despite multiple safeguards.” Flight controllers on the ground had to intervene in both issues to prevent Boeing from losing the vehicle. “Software defects, particularly in complex spacecraft code, are not unexpected,” NASA wrote in a blog post on Friday. “However, there were numerous instances where the Boeing software quality processes either should have or could have uncovered the defects. Due to these breakdowns found in design, code and test of the software, they will require systemic corrective actions.”

NASA's concern is quite understandable since Boeing's lack of critical oversight and software issues led to the 737-Max crashes as well as deep investigations into lack of safety-concerns, cover-up and corruption. Matter of fact, Boeing's CEO was fired just days after Starliner's mission failure - I now believe both Starliner errors were evident for the panel at the time. Boeing's at still an in-flight abort test and an ISS docking behind SpaceX, and I'm not sore there's lobbying power to convince NASA to put American butts into Boeing space capsule seats.

Safety panel’s members are worried about Boeing’s testing processes, and they want NASA to look into the company’s protocols surrounding management and handling of Starliner. “The panel has a larger concern with the rigor of Boeing’s verification processes,” Paul Hill, a member of ASAP, said during the meeting.

Note that Boeing has received a total of $4.82 billion from NASA's Commercial Crew Program to date and SpaceX has netted $3.14 billion for the same task, and NASA will likely pay about $90 million for each astronaut who flies aboard Boeing's CST-100 Starliner capsule on International Space Station (ISS) missions, more than they pay the Russians ($86 million). In contrast, Crew Dragon price per butt is $55 million. Doubt NASA is happy.
 
Last edited:
Reactions: Broxi

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
11,634
2,185
Tycho Station
The Chinese government has decided to aid key factories inc. Giga Shangai to resume production amidst coronavirus crisis. They are offering major security control and sanitation work, plus Shanghai is not among the most affected areas. It's still a very risky move with the gov looking to score points with foreign partners and avoid economic collapse, the larger concern overall. It's lose-lose situation since China fucked up, responding an mass scale 2-4 weeks too late. Now, if everyone remains home for months, economy then government/system will fold, if everyone's ordered to work, it'll help the spread.

Good thing about internet age is home office in many areas, as well as robotic controls in many factories so they are less crowded. Still, even with population control in cities and the virus looking to slow down in spread and death rate, putting hundreds or thousands under the same roof is risky. Giga Shanghai will be a good / potentially deadly measure if Chinese production can resume without significantly impact spread. Good thing is the factory being somewhat automated and workers already mandated to use hazardous protection, so I can see them avoiding contact on factory floor. But what about social areas? That's where China needs to come up with something that doesn't end up in worker riot.


Update: only employees who stayed withing Shanghai city / metro limits during Spring Festival picked up work today as returning ones are quarantined for 14 days before cleared. This is not a Tesla but a city-wide quarantine apparently. Some production is expected at 40% capacity, tho likely under 1000 cars / week. Training for 24/7 shifts is also likely delayed, that would've guaranteed 3000/w, but workforce is simply too limited. While the battery plant and LG Chem deal is ready, local cell production is also likely delayed, tho drivetrain, battery packs and other stuff mostly arrive from the US right now. On the other hand, Tesla is largely dependent on Chinese suppliers in America, so question marks there. This is setting up some tough months ahead in terms of production and sales, but Q3-Q4 could see a larger climb because of that. We'll see how Wall Street reacts.
 
Last edited:

Broxi

Literal Communist
Jul 24, 2012
8,855
8,689
State of NASA Address from Administrator Bridenstine


I should have posted this in my own NASA / SpaceX, Blue Origin thread (ya cunt) but you're doing good work in this thread Bone so I'll ditch that one for my space exploration news and updates.
 
Reactions: BigBone

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
11,634
2,185
Tycho Station
May 7 targeted for SpaceX / NASA Crew Dragon Demo2 flight



It looks like SpaceX will indeed be the first privately owned company to send astronauts to space, specifically the International Space Station as Boeing Starliner errors are likely pushing back Starliner launch my several months. NASA confirmed the Q2 (April-June) target window and Ars Techica has a tentative May 7 target date for the Crew Dragon launch on top of a Falcon 9 launch vehicle, tho that specific date is not yet confirmed and still depends on lots of redundant inspections and paperwork.





In other space news, ESA/NASA Solar Orbiter successfully lifted off and began its years long journey to study our Sun from up close





 
Reactions: Touche
May 10, 2013
2,637
1,481
May 7 targeted for SpaceX / NASA Crew Dragon Demo2 flight



It looks like SpaceX will indeed be the first privately owned company to send astronauts to space, specifically the International Space Station as Boeing Starliner errors are likely pushing back Starliner launch my several months. NASA confirmed the Q2 (April-June) target window and Ars Techica has a tentative May 7 target date for the Crew Dragon launch on top of a Falcon 9 launch vehicle, tho that specific date is not yet confirmed and still depends on lots of redundant inspections and paperwork.





In other space news, ESA/NASA Solar Orbiter successfully lifted off and began its years long journey to study our Sun from up close





I wonder how this will affect Tesla stock prices, has anyone noticed a trend with Tesla prices in correlation to SpaceX news? I know they're separate entities, but I figure anything under Elon Musk affects his other interests.
 

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
11,634
2,185
Tycho Station
I wonder how this will affect Tesla stock prices, has anyone noticed a trend with Tesla prices in correlation to SpaceX news? I know they're separate entities, but I figure anything under Elon Musk affects his other interests.
Not much correlation IMO, these are very separate businesses and SpaceX is privately funded. However, there's a chance SpaceX might actually spin Starlink satellite internet business off and go public. It has multi-billion dollar potential and might grow into its own Tesla size, whereas SpaceX would remain a rocket company with interplanetary goals. It's not a bad move since money would likely pour in, helping rapid expansion of the constellation, plus SpaceX could actually ask for higher per launch price and have more cash on hand rather than spending its own billions for the internet business.

Musk's ventures do seem to grew closer via expansion. SpaceX package (cold gas thrusters) for the Roadster 2020? Space-grade stainless steel exoskelenton for Cybertruck, potential Texas build near SpaceX? Starlink internet at some point for cars? EVs as transport for the Boring Company's cheap tunnels? Tesla solar panels and battery packs supplying Musk factories? Self driving AI then AI-brain interface with Neuralink? Surely, the man is busy and the vision of a sustainable future down here and escape plan to Mars does not seem like wishful science fiction anymore. But investors do seem to stick with the actual business they put their money into, and for most on Wall Street, Tesla is just a car company that lives and dies by deliveries.
 
Reactions: Touche
May 10, 2013
2,637
1,481
Not much correlation IMO, these are very separate businesses and SpaceX is privately funded. However, there's a chance SpaceX might actually spin Starlink satellite internet business off and go public. It has multi-billion dollar potential and might grow into its own Tesla size, whereas SpaceX would remain a rocket company with interplanetary goals. It's not a bad move since money would likely pour in, helping rapid expansion of the constellation, plus SpaceX could actually ask for higher per launch price and have more cash on hand rather than spending its own billions for the internet business.

Musk's ventures do seem to grew closer via expansion. SpaceX package (cold gas thrusters) for the Roadster 2020? Space-grade stainless steel exoskelenton for Cybertruck, potential Texas build near SpaceX? Starlink internet at some point for cars? EVs as transport for the Boring Company's cheap tunnels? Tesla solar panels and battery packs supplying Musk factories? Self driving AI then AI-brain interface with Neuralink? Surely, the man is busy and the vision of a sustainable future down here and escape plan to Mars does not seem like wishful science fiction anymore. But investors do seem to stick with the actual business they put their money into, and for most on Wall Street, Tesla is just a car company that lives and dies by deliveries.
They really are separate businesses but I think that I've noticed a trend. Elon's state of mind, his personal life, his performance levels... Everyone of his businesses thrives or fails depending on him. Tesla lost 9% value when he smoked weed on Joe Rogans podcast.

So there's that one aspect.

Now as you mentioned we are seeing his technology being used cross platform, and who better than his own various companies to monopolize the benefits of their unofficial partner companies.

I read that Space X may not go public till Mars missions, but perhaps sooner in order to acquire funding for Mars missions. But I'm sure we'll be better able to gauge how closely all of his interests affect one another once Space X goes public. I know I'll be one of it's first investors.

For Wall Street Tesla is just another car company, but for Tesla's shareholders they are more like a cult rather than investors.

Wall Street lost nearly $ 8.4 billion trying to short Tesla because of its shareholders vision for Tesla and the future.