~ Elon's spinal surgeries - Starship's tests - Tesla's S3XY upgrades ~

Broxi

The Anti-Bully
Jul 24, 2012
11,328
11,594
Dickola would've been a better fit.

I accept your sincere apology.

SpaceX doesn't disclose schedule but with the cryo test done they will move onto wet dress rehearsal and static fire, probably with one Raptor, then 3. Then nosecone up, lots of checkups so... late October maybe?
It really does feel like breakneck speed stuff from them on the Starship front, especially in comparison to their peers.

F9 launches are so routine now that they seem to come and go every other week.
 

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
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Looks like there was a small leak with SN8 so they need some patchwork and retest.



Elon very talkative today on Twitter, confirming that Giga Berlin, well under construction but not yet permitted for production will risk using 4680 batteries for Modey Y, about 2 years before such battery tech could go mainstream! Whoa, risky move, admitted by the Man in this odd conversation.



 

Broxi

The Anti-Bully
Jul 24, 2012
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It seems like the stainless steel carcass on the SN# builds is holding up much better now, there's far less oil canning across the surface soon after it's built and on the test pad.

Is this due to a different grade of Stainless or better welding processes?
 

BigBone

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Jun 13, 2012
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Oh BTW did I say that Elon got rid of Tesla's PR department? Completely. Not joking, the largest EV company per sales and largest auto company per market cap doesn't have PR. :lol:

It seems like the stainless steel carcass on the SN# builds is holding up much better now, there's far less oil canning across the surface soon after it's built and on the test pad.

Is this due to a different grade of Stainless or better welding processes?
Both, SpaceX has been using a state-of-the-art laser welder tho no info how much is the work automated and human assisted. Still some work to do, as per SN8 leak yesterday, yet is seemingly passed the test this morning. SN8 is probably a mixture of 304L and another alloy and I guess SN9 is already the 30X series alloy SpaceX is developing itself? They are quite good at this, Tesla only just announced a new aluminum alloy for Tesla Model Y single piece casting and Cybertruck will also get a space grade stainless steel alloy.

According to Elon, SN7.1 reached 8 bar pressure differential and 9 bar at tank bottom, with the human rating threshold for safety being 1.4x the 6 bar flight pressure, which is 8.4 bars. I think Starship will hold, but what about Super Heavy? That she's gonna be crazy high with lots of rings and some mid-frame stiffeners. It will need to hold a LOT of cryogenic oxygen and methane, plus a fully built Starship on top. Crazy shit.


 

Broxi

The Anti-Bully
Jul 24, 2012
11,328
11,594
Oh BTW did I say that Elon got rid of Tesla's PR department? Completely. Not joking, the largest EV company per sales and largest auto company per market cap doesn't have PR. :lol:

Both, SpaceX has been using a state-of-the-art laser welder tho no info how much is the work automated and human assisted. Still some work to do, as per SN8 leak yesterday, yet is seemingly passed the test this morning. SN8 is probably a mixture of 304L and another alloy and I guess SN9 is already the 30X series alloy SpaceX is developing itself? They are quite good at this, Tesla only just announced a new aluminum alloy for Tesla Model Y single piece casting and Cybertruck will also get a space grade stainless steel alloy.

According to Elon, SN7.1 reached 8 bar pressure differential and 9 bar at tank bottom, with the human rating threshold for safety being 1.4x the 6 bar flight pressure, which is 8.4 bars. I think Starship will hold, but what about Super Heavy? That she's gonna be crazy high with lots of rings and some mid-frame stiffeners. It will need to hold a LOT of cryogenic oxygen and methane, plus a fully built Starship on top. Crazy shit.


I see Musk just commented on this render

 
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BigBone

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Jun 13, 2012
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St
They've been fairly consistent with their vision from those images posted years back, when you see it next to the Saturn 5, it will be ridiculous watching this thing fly...

Shit will look insane.

Starship SN8 has now 3 Raptor sea-level engines installed apparently and readied for static fire testing later this week. If the first ever multi-Raptor test goes well, SN8 could fly later this month, but needs lots of work: top intersection, proper nose section and fins, hydraulics, programming and shit. In the meantime, we have Neopork's render of the belly flop maneuver, that time when Starship uses thick atmospheric drag to slow itself down before turning back vertical and land. Extremely unlikely they'll succeed at this first.

 

BigBone

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Jun 13, 2012
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Elon's trolling Lucid Air, the potential luxury sedan rival that's just announced a price cut of the base model (coming no earlier than 2022) to $72K. Base Model S will now start at (and get delivered instantly) $69 420. FFS, how many more 69 and 420 jokes? :lol: Tesla is clearly pushing to break he 500k deliveries barrier they said they would 4 years ago (technically, they said they'd produce as many), and price cuts all around, new interest in China and Europe, Model 3 refresh and growing Model Y demand helps. Still, odds are coming just under 500k.

I definitely oppose Musk's downplaying of Covid without getting into the details, and while the argument to not panic (that resulted in millions losing their jobs, tens of thousands of businesses going under and many not getting proper medial care due to extra Covid beds), this is a serious issue that needs to be dealt with. The good news is: Tesla Grohmann's working hard behind doors with CureVan on them RNA printers bringing potential mRNA cures in the future, and SpaceX has converted and repurposed an entire area of their rocket factory to produce an extremely complex proportional solenoid valves for Medtronic’s Puritan Bennett 980 flagship ventilator - the part that bottlenecks Medtronic's own production to deliver enough equipment world-wide. This one is an important piece of the puzzle, and nice job on SpaceX' part to put lots of engineering talent and machinery into this.


Work don't stop for rockets tho: Starship SN8's static fire could happen tonight or tomorrow (most likely a wet dress rehearsal first), followed by nose cone installation, another SF (cause there's a separate header tank at the top of the nosecone for better weight distribution - that tank holds propellants for entry and landing), then 15 km flight, if we're so lucky. But anyways, Elon is promising new, more advanced welds soon, and at the same time, they are working on SN9, SN10, SN11, S12, SN13, SN14 and Super Heavy SN01 simultaneously... Also, Starlink #13 is scheduled for the 18th (Sunday), but due to the GPS-III Falcon 9 issues, Crew-1 launch is delayed till mid-November. Starlink public beta is about to kick off BTW in Northern US and Southern Canada, tho some first responders in remote areas are already using it.
 
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BigBone

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Oh u thought 2020 was done with its shit show? Think again: two large, dead satellites are on collision course for a 2,8 ton, 15 km/s head on clash at about 991 kms low earth orbit. Their opposing orbits intersect under 25 meters tomorrow, and probability of a conjunction is very high.



As depicted in the movie Gravity: if enough space junk gets tossed around especially after satellites getting blown up or crashing into each other, it could trigger a chain reaction of debris taking unpredictable orbits taking more satellites down and turning them into more debris, taking more satellites down and so on. In an absolute worst case scenario we lose most of our communications and other satellites, as well as access to LEO, ISS and higher orbits since rockets can be torn apart flying through that part of space.



Now some of the debris get deorbited between few weeks and years after clash, others with higher energy orbits stay up for millennia however, and ISS already has to endure small hits often (and there's an oxygen leak up there currently), while it has to change orbit to avoid larger parts. In 2007, China tested its anti-satellite missiles, and just but destroying a single sat they added thousands of high risk debris, and over 13 years only a small % of trackable parts deorbited and burnt up.



We won't necessarily know for many hours or even days or more if object 19826 and 36123 actually hit each other on October 16, at 00:56 UTC, and even if they do they might not trigger the Kessler effect, but could easily add thousands of sharp, high energy debris to Earth orbit, taking down sats in the upcoming years and adding risks to LEO. This is space junk flying around Earth at extreme speeds currently:

 
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Broxi

The Anti-Bully
Jul 24, 2012
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ffs, we really need a way of safely deorbiting old satellite and collecting space junk.

Thanks China, again, for just not giving a fuck really about anything too while I'm at it.
 

BigBone

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ffs, we really need a way of safely deorbiting old satellite and collecting space junk.

Thanks China, again, for just not giving a fuck really about anything too while I'm at it.
If a satellite loses comms, runs out of propulsion or never had one, it's as good as shrapnel waiting for collision, very slowly deorbiting per gravity. It's damn near impossible to match some of these elliptical orbits via a clean-up rocket, it's expensive, requires extreme precision and spy sats carry sensitive tech even to take photos of, so many nations rather blow them to smithereens than take them down in joined efforts.

One of the benefits of Starlink besides occupying ~550 km low earth orbit which means faster natural deorbit, is the reliable krypton thrusters it uses to raise and lower its orbit. SpaceX has already successfully deorbited most of the first 60 test satellites, the problem however will be with the numbers: at a constellation of tens of thousands, just 1% going offline in the upcoming decades means 100+ shrapnel flying around. I guess other Starlinks could potentially knock them into lower orbits for faster natural deorbit, or SpaceX has contingency plans for this, but it's a rapidly increasing problem and we might lock us into Prison Earth by space debris rendering space inaccessible. Guess Elon's Mark colony can't come soon enough...
 
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Broxi

The Anti-Bully
Jul 24, 2012
11,328
11,594
If a satellite loses comms, runs out of propulsion or never had one, it's as good as shrapnel waiting for collision, very slowly deorbiting per gravity. It's damn near impossible to match some of these elliptical orbits via a clean-up rocket, it's expensive, requires extreme precision and spy sats carry sensitive tech even to take photos of, so many nations rather blow them to smithereens than take them down in joined efforts.

One of the benefits of Starlink besides occupying ~550 km low earth orbit which means faster natural deorbit, is the reliable krypton thrusters it uses to raise and lower its orbit. SpaceX has already successfully deorbited most of the first 60 test satellites, the problem however will be with the numbers: at a constellation of tens of thousands, just 1% going offline in the upcoming decades means 100+ shrapnel flying around. I guess other Starlinks could potentially knock them into lower orbits for faster natural deorbit, or SpaceX has contingency plans for this, but it's a rapidly increasing problem and we might lock us into Prison Earth by space debris rendering space inaccessible. Guess Elon's Mark colony can't come soon enough...
I agree, I worry about the consequences of the number of Starlink sats in orbit despite the assurances from SpaceX. It's isn't difficult to imagine the possibility of these causing future nightmares.

Assuming the two defunct sats miss each other by a margin of 25 mtr, won't they always be on a collision orbit for the future, so it's a matter of time?

The problem is difficult but I feel we need to produce some kind of solutions, as more countries start launching sats, the problems isn't going to progressively get better, only worse.
 
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I agree, I worry about the consequences of the number of Starlink sats in orbit despite the assurances from SpaceX. It's isn't difficult to imagine the possibility of these causing future nightmares.

Assuming the two defunct sats miss each other by a margin of 25 mtr, won't they always be on a collision orbit for the future, so it's a matter of time?

The problem is difficult but I feel we need to produce some kind of solutions, as more countries start launching sats, the problems isn't going to progressively get better, only worse.
Space Bulldozers?
 

BigBone

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Jun 13, 2012
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Assuming the two defunct sats miss each other by a margin of 25 mtr, won't they always be on a collision orbit for the future, so it's a matter of time?
Theoretically yes, but each have different orbital periods, so their next collision could be many years from now, plus as all LEO satellites deorbit slowly (and at different rates), chances of these two rendezvousing again after their hookup tomorrow (hopefully without touching each others funny parts) are slim if I understand orbital mechanics correctly.
 
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Broxi

The Anti-Bully
Jul 24, 2012
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Theoretically yes, but each have different orbital periods, so their next collision could be many years from now, plus as all LEO satellites deorbit slowly (and at different rates), chances of these two rendezvousing again after their hookup tomorrow (hopefully without touching each others funny parts) are slim if I understand orbital mechanics correctly.
Let's hold our breath and hope then, it is the current year, 2020 though, so I'm not hugely confident.
 

Broxi

The Anti-Bully
Jul 24, 2012
11,328
11,594
Space Bulldozers?
Something which can be programmed to intercept orbits of larger objects and decelerate them enough to put them into a more rapid deorbit and stronger regulations and international agreement to ensure all future sats will safely decommission themselves into the ocean well before their full lifecycle is expected to be up.
 

kf3

Jul 17, 2012
7,163
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South London
has to happen eventually tho?

years ago i read about how carefully they have to calculate launches and re-entries to miss all the shit up there, and that was years ago.
 
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