~ Elon's World - Starship SN9 prepped for flight - Tesla record sales signal decade of the EV ~

Jun 23, 2017
1,879
2,304
32
Well you did share the financial thought 'balloon's gonna pop' which usually means the end of the balloon, so at least elaborate what you meant by that.

BTW Goldman Sachs & institutional investors are archaic and unable to break down complex 21th century tech companies, retail investors are the hot ones nowadays.
Institutional investors comprise about as big a percentage of Tesla shareholders as large auto manufacturers on average. I can assure you plenty have made bank on Tesla.

There also won’t be a time where retail investors are more accurate over a long term time horizon. Retail investors exhibits behavioural biases, they ‘analyse’ with a fraction of the tools, time and education of their institutional counterparts. That isn’t to say they can’t be successful, or that an individual retail investor couldn’t outperform a star fund manager, but they’ll always be at a significant disadvantage.

Anyway, Tesla is a bubble waiting to pop, of that I have pretty much no doubt. Timing that pop, and trying to assess the magnitude of any fall, is much harder to do though.
 

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
13,708
3,233
Tycho Station
Institutional investors comprise about as big a percentage of Tesla shareholders as large auto manufacturers on average. I can assure you plenty have made bank on Tesla.

There also won’t be a time where retail investors are more accurate over a long term time horizon. Retail investors exhibits behavioural biases, they ‘analyse’ with a fraction of the tools, time and education of their institutional counterparts. That isn’t to say they can’t be successful, or that an individual retail investor couldn’t outperform a star fund manager, but they’ll always be at a significant disadvantage.

Anyway, Tesla is a bubble waiting to pop, of that I have pretty much no doubt. Timing that pop, and trying to assess the magnitude of any fall, is much harder to do though.
Tesla was supposed to pop half dozen times already during years of losing money according to shorts who now lost $50 billion, while Tesla became profitable. Covid stock panic and forced Fremont shutdown was the perfect storm to panic sell ALL Tesla stock & burst Tesla like a bitch, yet none of that happened cause long-term investors endured, direct sales proved Covid-proof while every other automaker lost market share and employees, whereas Elon actually started building 2 new Gigafactories on a hiring spree.

That's Covid 2020 for you with Tesla begin with $5 bil in a rainy day account and exits it with $20 bil for kingdom come and half a million EVs sold in a record. Enter 2021 w/Biden inaugurated with a national EV strategy plus the EU, UK, Japan, China and India looking to be carbon neutral by the end of this decade incl. energy production and transportation, two of Tesla's main products, also enter 2 new Gigafactories and 800K car sales (consistent with 50% compound annual growth rate). So unless 2021 goes 1929 and Tesla folds like a bitch with the rest of the world (some fear that, not impossible), it's on 5 times more solid ground today than it was just 12 months ago.

But I get it: EV stock buy spree could trigger another dotcom bubble burst as investors (and institutionals pour most money in) panic bought Tesla, Nio, Nikola etc. Only Tesla ain't no Nikola or some 2nd hand 2000s internet company without innovation, technology, leadership and actual product, it has Elon Musk, the Supercharger network, the most popular EVs on the streets, Full Self Driving and leading battery tech, performance and range. So please define what is a bubble burst and what happens EXACTLY to the 50% CAGR and the four factories when it happens? Not to put anyone on a spot, I just laid out what I see (and darn mad didn't buy in March), and now I wanna know Tesla's future according to those who think it'll pop, please elaborate.
 
Reactions: Haggis
Jun 23, 2017
1,879
2,304
32
Tesla was supposed to pop half dozen times already during years of losing money according to shorts who now lost $50 billion, while Tesla became profitable. Covid stock panic and forced Fremont shutdown was the perfect storm to panic sell ALL Tesla stock & burst Tesla like a bitch, yet none of that happened cause long-term investors endured, direct sales proved Covid-proof while every other automaker lost market share and employees, whereas Elon actually started building 2 new Gigafactories on a hiring spree.

That's Covid 2020 for you with Tesla begin with $5 bil in a rainy day account and exits it with $20 bil for kingdom come and half a million EVs sold in a record. Enter 2021 w/Biden inaugurated with a national EV strategy plus the EU, UK, Japan, China and India looking to be carbon neutral by the end of this decade incl. energy production and transportation, two of Tesla's main products, also enter 2 new Gigafactories and 800K car sales (consistent with 50% compound annual growth rate). So unless 2021 goes 1929 and Tesla folds like a bitch with the rest of the world (some fear that, not impossible), it's on 5 times more solid ground today than it was just 12 months ago.

But I get it: EV stock buy spree could trigger another dotcom bubble burst as investors (and institutionals pour most money in) panic bought Tesla, Nio, Nikola etc. Only Tesla ain't no Nikola or some 2nd hand 2000s internet company without innovation, technology, leadership and actual product, it has Elon Musk, the Supercharger network, the most popular EVs on the streets, Full Self Driving and leading battery tech, performance and range. So please define what is a bubble burst and what happens EXACTLY to the 50% CAGR and the four factories when it happens? Not to put anyone on a spot, I just laid out what I see (and darn mad didn't buy in March), and now I wanna know Tesla's future according to those who things it'll pop, please elaborate.
I don’t know as much about Tesla as you. I’ve worked in investment banking, asset management, and now venture capital though. One thing I’ve seen consistently over the past decade though, is that the share price of companies with extreme valuations - and Tesla’s valuation is at the most extreme end of extreme valuations - collapse when market expectations aren’t met.

In Tesla’s case it is currently priced for absolute perfection and then some. The company is worth around 8x as much as it was this time last year, with the global macro environment looking much, much more precarious now than it was then.

I don’t believe Tesla will go bust or anything like that, I simply believe they’re priced for absolute perfection and won’t grow in an absolutely perfect manner. Just as we’ve seen excessive share price growth in response to positive news, I expect we’ll see an excessive fall in value in response to negative news.

When that happens, and by how much it affects the share price though, I have no idea. I don’t hate Tesla, Elon, and am more comfortable seeing people make money through business growth than I am seeing shorters capitalise on loss.
 
Reactions: Haggis

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
13,708
3,233
Tycho Station
I don’t know as much about Tesla as you. I’ve worked in investment banking, asset management, and now venture capital though. One thing I’ve seen consistently over the past decade though, is that the share price of companies with extreme valuations - and Tesla’s valuation is at the most extreme end of extreme valuations - collapse when market expectations aren’t met.

In Tesla’s case it is currently priced for absolute perfection and then some. The company is worth around 8x as much as it was this time last year, with the global macro environment looking much, much more precarious now than it was then.

I don’t believe Tesla will go bust or anything like that, I simply believe they’re priced for absolute perfection and won’t grow in an absolutely perfect manner. Just as we’ve seen excessive share price growth in response to positive news, I expect we’ll see an excessive fall in value in response to negative news.

When that happens, and by how much it affects the share price though, I have no idea. I don’t hate Tesla, Elon, and am more comfortable seeing people make money through business growth than I am seeing shorters capitalise on loss.
Yeah but then again, Tesla is not like any other bloated EV stock ready to fold under when questions asked what they really have, because its the future of transportation and sustainable energy with the largest economies on the globe supporting the same goals. Tesla is the equivalent of Amazon, the future present of e-commerce & cloud services with a $1.7 trillion market cap and w/exponentially growing revenue & operating income. Ppl. went batshit crazy calling Bezos a bald bubble for 10 straight years as his company was losing serious money, but early investors smarter than myself (not an investor yet anyway) looked at that exponential growth curve and saw how revenue and net income will catch up then explode, and it did. And Amazon is about go to EVs, into space and pharmacy.




Tesla's compound annual growth rate (excl. energy & services such as FSD and other paid updates) is also on an exponential curve hence many sticking long term, and S&P gives the stock further calm. But mkay, let's play a game: what if in short term, stock price burst to 1/5th of today? So fucking what? Unless 2021 is 1929 all over again, the exponential growth that is coded in won't stop happening, the largest economies on the planet are on the same page with sustainable energy.



At times Tesla &Amazon looked impossible not to fold, but as the curve never flattened, they became impossible to fold, unless the world folds around them.
 

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
13,708
3,233
Tycho Station
Just to be clear: do I think Tesla stock is untouchable in short term? Nope, many expect a major market pullback and some the Big World Economy Crash, and if that happens, I'll give no two shits about stock prices, I'll be making shields out of garbage cans and sharpen my family's 19th cen. sword. Pretty sure there's a horse somewhere too. But if Tesla pulls back 80% to $170B would I call that a crash if stock price will still be up 5x compared to 2019? Obviously not, stock been up and down like a whore's drawers yet both the up tendency and the growth curve is remarkably consistent since IPO. World heading toward the same goals as Tesla helps too.

If world economy folds, bye-bye Tesla, but if there's a 3-5 year downtown and humanity survives, that $20B cash on hand seems enough to get past rainy days, after all execution is flawless and ppl. still need to buy cars, and EV adoption S-curve is only just rising after early adopters (tech geeks, performance freaks and environmental reeks): everyday ppl. just now starting to buy them in China, Norway, Germany etc. supported by governments, and Tesla is the iPhone in EV space. So sure a major pullback 2-3 times this decade is possible, a crash where Tesla folds over, I don't think so - and if it happens, its gonna be a good sign to start panic as the world will burn around it, what say you? @paloalto00 @Khaiser ?


Also: SN9 finished its first cryo test, so far so good:

 
Jun 23, 2017
1,879
2,304
32
Yeah but then again, Tesla is not like any other bloated EV stock ready to fold under when questions asked what they really have, because its the future of transportation and sustainable energy with the largest economies on the globe supporting the same goals. Tesla is the equivalent of Amazon, the future present of e-commerce & cloud services with a $1.7 trillion market cap and w/exponentially growing revenue & operating income. Ppl. went batshit crazy calling Bezos a bald bubble for 10 straight years as his company was losing serious money, but early investors smarter than myself (not an investor yet anyway) looked at that exponential growth curve and saw how revenue and net income will catch up then explode, and it did. And Amazon is about go to EVs, into space and pharmacy.




Tesla's compound annual growth rate (excl. energy & services such as FSD and other paid updates) is also on an exponential curve hence many sticking long term, and S&P gives the stock further calm. But mkay, let's play a game: what if in short term, stock price burst to 1/5th of today? So fucking what? Unless 2021 is 1929 all over again, the exponential growth that is coded in won't stop happening, the largest economies on the planet are on the same page with sustainable energy.



At times Tesla &Amazon looked impossible not to fold, but as the curve never flattened, they became impossible to fold, unless the world folds around them.
If Tesla is the equivalent of Amazon then it only reinforces the major issue with it - it’s massively overvalued by any conventional financial metric. Amazon is currently worth about 2.5x that of Tesla. In terms of Q3 earnings, Amazon reported revenues roughly 11x that of Tesla, and net income of approximately 20x that of Tesla. I would also argue that Amazon is far better positioned to capitalise on a recessionary environment than Tesla is, particularly one thats resulted in consumer habits changing drastically with more and more people shopping online.

None of that is meant to bash Tesla, but it shows how stretched the valuation is. They are currently priced for absolute perfection - to sustain a massive growth trajectory that will likely only become more and more difficult to maintain as others (with deeper pockets) enter the EV market, and the majority of the worlds largest economies slip into a deep recessionary environment.

If the stock price fell to 20% of its current value as you suggest, it would be exactly the type of ‘bubble bursting’ event I’m alluding to. I don’t think anyone is suggesting Tesla will go out of business, only that their current valuation is massively stretched based on the most fundamental aspects of any stock valuations - how much that company actually makes relative to how much is costs. I would contest the ‘so what’ comment by suggesting that share prices down necessarily bounce straight back up or indeed recover at all.

None of this should be taken as an attack on a company you’re clearly passionate about (great thread btw). Just an observation that I believe to be true - that Tesla shares will pull back quite dramatically at some point in the future as no growth trajectory in an evolving industry with some massive competitors likely to enter, and a global recession likely to materialise, is ever as perfect as Tesla is currently priced to be.
 

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
13,708
3,233
Tycho Station
If Tesla is the equivalent of Amazon then it only reinforces the major issue with it - it’s massively overvalued by any conventional financial metric.
And that's exactly why most conventional, institutional investors on the sidelines saw Tesla (or Amazon) fly by them and make other ppl. billionaires, or bet against Tesla and lost $50 billion themselves (true story), cause conventional metrics say sht like Netflix is just a DVD rental business, Amazon is just a (book)store and Tesla is just a niche EV car company nobody really wants besides geeks. Clearly, something is wrong with those metrics if most institutionals did end up, reluctantly, buying a lot of stock, and at 10X-20X price compared to say ARK Invest that laid out this very path several years ago, and Tesla is breaking records even with a pandemic, factory shutdowns, economic struggle and Trump playing games.

In the end I do think Elon agrees with you on the valuation short term, hence raising $10+ billion against small dilution, so even if all 2020 gains are lost in 2021, Tesla cash flow is up $15 billion just like that, perhaps more. And Tesla always puts cash back into growth without the baggage of ICE manufacturer unions, pension funds, old school family members & investors backstabbing ICE to EV change, inconsistent vision, overpaid middle men, political pressure, dealerships, PR machinery and a bad oil image. Tesla has none of that baggage, sells directly with 50% annual growth rate sustained, has a singular vision in line with largest economies who all push for EVs now, a "good guy" image CEO pushing for the sustainability and the worst Tesla kneecap is actual battery capacity to sell more cars because the demand is far greater. Well, soon the whole world will have battery shortages and who has the biggest supplies secured 5 years in advance? And who can turn a massive fleet of human driven cars into Tesla self-driving taxis? Its the same leftfield money printing factory as Starlink for SpaceX: they can even stop selling cars and put each new on the road without insurance (because Tesla has its own), drivers (cause the car drives itself), frequent repairs (cause EVs require less) and high gas money (cause electricity is cheaper and EVs more efficient). Or no FSD, and same 50% growth rate, big deal.

You said the word competition, well its been coming for 10+ years VW now investing more into EVs than Tesla ever did, and their biggest weapon is the ID.3- A car 1,5 years too late that came out before the software was finished cause VW underestimated SW nuances of the drive train and battery pack. Then SW came out was was filled with bugs such as cars unable to charge. Then it was supposedly fixed and now VW has chip shortages cause they don't design their own like Tesla. They are so far from Elon's streamlined vertical integration in the EV space its not funny cause ICE cars bring our air quality down and temperatures up. And then you have dealerships talk customers out of buying EVs cause these stealerships lose money selling them (less repairs and maintenance) or they put a 30% extra on the price tag to compensate and VW EV suddenly really don't make sense. Absolutely no contest for the Model SEXY with cheap worldwide Super Charging, great SW updates, FSD, huge entertainment package, very good range and excellent safety.


That is Tesla's largest EV competitor based on capital investment.
 
Jun 23, 2017
1,879
2,304
32
And that's exactly why most conventional, institutional investors on the sidelines saw Tesla (or Amazon) fly by them and make other ppl. billionaires, or bet against Tesla and lost $50 billion themselves (true story), cause conventional metrics say sht like Netflix is just a DVD rental business, Amazon is just a (book)store and Tesla is just a niche EV car company nobody really wants besides geeks. Clearly, something is wrong with those metrics if most institutionals did end up, reluctantly, buying a lot of stock, and at 10X-20X price compared to say ARK Invest that laid out this very path several years ago, and Tesla is breaking records even with a pandemic, factory shutdowns, economic struggle and Trump playing games.

In the end I do think Elon agrees with you on the valuation short term, hence raising $10+ billion against small dilution, so even if all 2020 gains are lost in 2021, Tesla cash flow is up $15 billion just like that, perhaps more. And Tesla always puts cash back into growth without the baggage of ICE manufacturer unions, pension funds, old school family members & investors backstabbing ICE to EV change, inconsistent vision, overpaid middle men, political pressure, dealerships, PR machinery and a bad oil image. Tesla has none of that baggage, sells directly with 50% annual growth rate sustained, has a singular vision in line with largest economies who all push for EVs now, a "good guy" image CEO pushing for the sustainability and the worst Tesla kneecap is actual battery capacity to sell more cars because the demand is far greater. Well, soon the whole world will have battery shortages and who has the biggest supplies secured 5 years in advance? And who can turn a massive fleet of human driven cars into Tesla self-driving taxis? Its the same leftfield money printing factory as Starlink for SpaceX: they can even stop selling cars and put each new on the road without insurance (because Tesla has its own), drivers (cause the car drives itself), frequent repairs (cause EVs require less) and high gas money (cause electricity is cheaper and EVs more efficient). Or no FSD, and same 50% growth rate, big deal.

You said the word competition, well its been coming for 10+ years VW now investing more into EVs than Tesla ever did, and their biggest weapon is the ID.3- A car 1,5 years too late that came out before the software was finished cause VW underestimated SW nuances of the drive train and battery pack. Then SW came out was was filled with bugs such as cars unable to charge. Then it was supposedly fixed and now VW has chip shortages cause they don't design their own like Tesla. They are so far from Elon's streamlined vertical integration in the EV space its not funny cause ICE cars bring our air quality down and temperatures up. And then you have dealerships talk customers out of buying EVs cause these stealerships lose money selling them (less repairs and maintenance) or they put a 30% extra on the price tag to compensate and VW EV suddenly really don't make sense. Absolutely no contest for the Model SEXY with cheap worldwide Super Charging, great SW updates, FSD, huge entertainment package, very good range and excellent safety.


That is Tesla's largest EV competitor based on capital investment.
Both Tesla and Amazon are heavily owned by institutions (ARK are also an institutional investor - focussing in disruptive technologies doesn’t change that).

Mate, you have a very misguided view of what institutional investors do or how much more sophisticated a game they’re playing than the average retail investor. I can assure you nobody working in asset management or investment banking, being paid a relative fortune to analyse these companies, considers Netflix as ‘just a video rental company’ or Amazon as ‘just a bookstore’. Institutional investors have mandates - the vast majority of them simply cannot take a punt (and believe me, for the vast, vast majority of retail investors this was an absolutely punt) in a recently launched tech stock with a market cap of only a couple of billion dollars. Unconstrained mandates technically could but they’re few and far between, some smaller companies funds might be able to but again they’ll have to adhere to strict exposure limits, and that leaves the likes of ARK to jump in. Big institutions are often reliant on established track records and business models, not because the analysts and fund managers getting paid 7-figures to follow these companies are some sort of simpletons, but because they cater to investor demand, and abide by a legally binding investment mandate.

It’s great that Tesla has all of that stuff - now tell me where I’ve said the business will fail? Listed equity markets are based first and foremost on consumer sentiment. Current consumer sentiment (as reflected by the current market price) is that Tesla will continue to grow at an exponential rate for years to come, without so much as a challenge along the way, amidst an economic challenge that the company has never experienced. I believe it will face that challenge and the share will fall significantly as a result. That is all.

No, you mentioned competition when you talked about Apple entering this market. That is how all industry works - early incumbents have a ‘first mover’ advantage, but competitors begin to enter into the market and profitability is reduced. That will also happen in the EV market.

Honestly mate, I really like this thread but it sounds like you’re absolutely wed to the Tesla stock here and conflating it with company performance. All anyone has really said is that Tesla is currently with 10x more than it was this time last year, but it’s not 10x the company. That doesn’t mean it’s going to go bust. That doesn’t mean it’s a poor business. It simply means share price movement (which is largely sentiment driven) has overreacted and indicates that the stock is now overpriced.
 
Reactions: BigBone

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
13,708
3,233
Tycho Station
No, you mentioned competition when you talked about Apple entering this market. That is how all industry works - early incumbents have a ‘first mover’ advantage, but competitors begin to enter into the market and profitability is reduced. That will also happen in the EV market.
Apple was first mover in the smartphone space and takes the absolute majority of that market's profits to this day, even with less unit sales than Samsung, Huawei, Xiaomi or BBK Electronics cause the very first mover advantage allowed them to streamline manufacturing first (outsourced to cheap Asian labor and cut costs via larger orders), plus they sell at higher average price like Tesla who still have 24% gross margin per car. That's unheard of in the EV space and even for mass ICE cars, and once production increases 10 fold (only took a few years last time, will happen by 2025 again) and there's a Gigafactory on each important continent (4 in operation next year), costs will drop dramatically (Tesla's batteries alone, the most expensive part, will cost half by 2023).

At that point Tesla can either take 40%+ margin and invest into even faster growth and R&D or seriously undercut competition with leading range, performance, SW and charging network and take profits via services (car entertainment, self driving, performance upgrades, paid services). Doesn't bode well for the competition and remember: Tesla is a moving target like the iPhone was (even more so): not only perpetual innovation is coded into Tesla via Elon's vertically integrated model (with far less 3rd parties involved), the EV market itself will grow from 2,6% to essentially 100 cause ALL economies will phase out ICE cars by 2035. Retaining Tesla's EV market share but EVs growing 40 times means 20 million Teslas sold at some point in an Apple position where VW or Toyota may sell more, but the fancy stuff and the "one more thing" will still be the new Tesla car or function cause Elon will come out with crazy shit.

Regarding the upcoming economic downturn, if its 1929 level, then it's goodbye for the all industry incl. Tesla, but a 2008 one that hit Tesla VERY HARD can be survived NOW. Even back then, days from bankwuptcy Elon somehow kept the boat afloat, and now Tesla has much better fundamentals with first mover tech and manufacturing advantage, a giant fanbase, great gross margin and no ICE / dealership baggage. Apple now looks dull in comparison, I mean fuck do I care if I own an iPhone a Samsung Galaxy? But that Model 3 with all them fun and fast and safe and self driving shit (and fart) is exciting as fuck, and the absolute majority under 30 share the same thought, and those teenager who'll never buy an ICE car will buy the Apple equivalent. And the $25K Tesla car is coming...

But I'm gonna bail out on the investor debate and admit you have a clear advantage in the field. Still, that $50B bet against Tesla was mostly lost by institutionals misreading the company, but I clearly care more about the actual fundamentals than the stock sticker price that will move up and down and up. Next day or year, I can't predict, a trillion dollar market cap before 2030 or even 2025, seems... well, likely unless 1929.2. Good talk!
 

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
13,708
3,233
Tycho Station
(TSLA closed & opened @all-time high since our discussion just sayin, don't care about stock price :lol:)

FSD Beta 2020.48.26.1 is out doing some cool stuff and some uncool


 

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
13,708
3,233
Tycho Station
And there you have it, TSLA finishes 2020 at a record high of 705.67 or a $668,9B market cap, epic growth during a pandemic and obviously plenty of chance of a pullback if 2021 decides to be a bitch, and fuck me, it's 50-50 today. But day's not done yet: hundreds of employees and fans/owners rally these hours for last minute deliveries in Tesla's usual end-of-quarter and year push, a delivery frenzy that makes or breaks Elon's 2014 prediction of selling 500,000 this year, something analysts laughed at. They sold 31,665 cars that year. Delivery report expected on January 3rd, Biden inaugurated with an EV plan on the 20th and earnings call with official 2021 predictions expected for February 3rd.

SpaceX also concluded its activities for the year but with SN9 finishing the cryo test, static fire can pick up as soon as January 4th, the next closure date. If everything goes smooth, SN9 may fly in 2 weeks. Plenty of Falcon 9 launches too incl. doubling the Starlink fleet, a rare Falcon Heavy and manned missions. The Boring Company starts 2021 at CES with the LVCC tunnel opening and Neuralink goes deeper into AI-human symbioses. Gonna be a wild ride next year, I just hope the good will outweigh the bad, by seriously fucking much. Happy new year, nerds!

 

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
13,708
3,233
Tycho Station
Tesla achieves 2014 projected goal of producing half a million cars come 2020, deliveries come 500 under 500k

6,5 yrs ago Elon predicted that Tesla will achieve at least half a million cars a year come 2020 and did just that, rolling off 509,737 units while putting 499,550 in owners hand, 450 shy of 500k as many lots simply dried empty to satisfy all customers (that number may improve, its Tesla's conservative estimate based on final paperwork). Combined with an all-time high close on the last trade day, a record Q4 delivery of 183,712, 2021 and the decade's outlook is great.



This truly signals that the era of the EV is here, and if you still doubt that this is transportation's iPhone moment: Tesla sold out all production Model 3s in China then all showroom cars as well before drying out. What happened on January 1 2021, surely a pullback? They announced the China-made Model Y is ready for order and delivery, and in 8 hours 100,000 were reportedly reserved. That's 3 times the 31,665 of total worldwide deliveries of all Teslas in 2014, in one country, one model, one day and the site crashed! And China has bet the house on EVs just like the EU, UK, Japan and soon US under Biden with other economies going that route by decade's end. And Cybertruck is at 500k+ in pre-order. And Model 2 is coming with half the price.

If ICE cars will be illegal to sell by the end of this decade as proposed, and Tesla has the high-end market locked with midrange dominated, growing in sales and Gigafactories, there's no reason to think the compound annual growth rate cannot be sustained for an EV market that'll grow 30 times, and even at conservative market share Tesla will deliver 15 million cars in 2030. Unless battery shortages slow down adoption, but then again: Elon has the most raw materials contracts and engineers to solve this problem.

Just as Chinese Model Y comes out with full 2021 improvements such as heated steering wheel or HEPA filter with bioweapon rate air filtering as well as performance rims, Tesla is prepping the Model S & X upgrade after a loooooong time so the entire fleet will be up to date. Of course Berlin is finishing (permits permitting), Texas into production (a mud field right now) and Shanghai doing phase III, with Nevada doing Semi trial production soon and Cybertruck come december 2021, followed by Roadster and Model 2, Tesla's fundamentals have never been better. And then there's FSD as a potential huge revenue future as well as Tesla Robotaxi fleet and paid services.

Of course 2020 started all dandy too and Covid and March stock crash came, and 2021 might be even darker (I sure hope not FFS)... but since Elon's goal is the same that might save the planet before total environmental disaster, and without ICE baggage, huge loans or dragging (and closing) dealerships, 2021 REALLY has to crash HARD to stop the growth if 2020 couldn't. Well done!
 

Icemmann

Breakin it down.
May 16, 2013
12,514
5,858
42
The tree outside GABBY'S room
I'm hoping starlink gets going quick so we can shit on the cable providers in the US. Fucking Comcast putting a data cap and increasing cost in the middle of a fucking pandemic. Fuck those guys can't wait until they go the way of the fucking dodo.
 

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
13,708
3,233
Tycho Station
I'm hoping starlink gets going quick so we can shit on the cable providers in the US. Fucking Comcast putting a data cap and increasing cost in the middle of a fucking pandemic. Fuck those guys can't wait until they go the way of the fucking dodo.
Depends where you live, Starlink is specifically designed for rural, sparsely populated areas with no fiber optics (and barely any mobile), and only filthy expensive yet rather slow satellite internet is available. Even Viasat with geostationary orbit and long latency can't serve huge crowds plus there's the data cap.

Starlink is placed much closer in low-Earth orbit which means much lower latency and speeds but these small sats also move over you head fast with some outages (at this stage until constellation is 4000 strong) and each sat can only serve limited no. of ppl.

This means no Starlink for highly populated areas (or at least not many customers) and it won't be price competitive where fiber is a cheaper, faster option. It's made for that 3rd of the human population that lives rural with limited internet options, plus not all will be able to pay the big bucks since building and maintaining this shit is super expensive. So rural customers, institutions, ships, planes, remote locations.
 
Reactions: Broxi

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
13,708
3,233
Tycho Station
Oh sh... Wall Street reacts positively for a Q result for a change...

18036

But more interesting than Tesla this week is SpaceX prepping SN9 for flight. Scheduling is always tricky as issues come up, but SN9 is past proofing and if all look a-okay, static fire(s) might happen today, tomorrow or on Wednesday.



They removed most of SN8's remains (R.I.P., legend!), opened and closed SN9 hatches and may even move SN10 to the other launch pad tho I'd save it for post-SN9 flight, if that happens. No official timeline given of course, but if everything is 100%, perhaps it flies before mid-January or surprisingly early, but with the usual trials and errors it may be a few weeks later.
 

Icemmann

Breakin it down.
May 16, 2013
12,514
5,858
42
The tree outside GABBY'S room
Depends where you live, Starlink is specifically designed for rural, sparsely populated areas with no fiber optics (and barely any mobile), and only filthy expensive yet rather slow satellite internet is available. Even Viasat with geostationary orbit and long latency can't serve huge crowds plus there's the data cap.

Starlink is placed much closer in low-Earth orbit which means much lower latency and speeds but these small sats also move over you head fast with some outages (at this stage until constellation is 4000 strong) and each sat can only serve limited no. of ppl.

This means no Starlink for highly populated areas (or at least not many customers) and it won't be price competitive where fiber is a cheaper, faster option. It's made for that 3rd of the human population that lives rural with limited internet options, plus not all will be able to pay the big bucks since building and maintaining this shit is super expensive. So rural customers, institutions, ships, planes, remote locations.
I'll be remote enough. No xfinity where I am moving to.
 

Icemmann

Breakin it down.
May 16, 2013
12,514
5,858
42
The tree outside GABBY'S room
Running from pouleece?
More running from the crackheads in the area. There's been too many carjackings and armed robberies by me.







 
Reactions: BigBone

BigBone

Sugalowda!
Jun 13, 2012
13,708
3,233
Tycho Station
More running from the crackheads in the area. There's been too many carjackings and armed robberies by me.







Shit man, sry to hear, looked up Lawndale on Streetview, isn't that like where Shameless is filmed?

Is that you, Frank?