Official NFL 2019 season thread

Duo

Bosomus Maximus
Jun 14, 2012
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Are the top QBs typically high picks?

That's a srs question, btw.
Yes and no historically, but put a gun to my head and demand a yes or no answer, I'd say no because of the next paragraph.

Unitas was a ninth round pick, 102nd overall, Montana was third round, 82nd pick (despite having won the collegiate 1977 National Title with Notre Dame, and yes, I was stunned at the time that Joe got picked behind the "Throwin' Samoan" Jack Thompson, Phil Simms and Steve Fuller). Bart Starr went in the seventh round with the 200th pick. The case continues to be made that Sonny Jurgensen (a fourth round pick) is the gridiron's GOAT passer (could Marino have challenged Jurgy's statistics during the Dead Ball era?), while Unitas, Starr and Montana have 12 titles in 15 championship game appearances between them. (People today don't realize just how dangerous a passer Starr was. In 1966, he threw 14 TD passes, but nine of those were for over 40 yards against just three INTs.) Adding Brady to Unitas, Starr and Montana brings us to 18 titles in 100 seasons, the last 85 seasons ending with a title game that the four of them participated in a total of 24 times, a monstrous percentage of all the NFL/SB championship games ever played for just those four QBs.

Sammy Baugh was the sixth overall pick out of TCU in 1937, and measured up to incredible hype to help the Redskins nail down the NFL Title his rookie year, the franchise's first in Washington after moving from Boston. After the next season, the Bears snagged Sid Luckman from Columbia (forever their greatest gridiron collegian) with the second overall pick, and they destroyed Baugh and the Skins 73-0 for the title in Luckman's second year. Baugh and Luckman easily remain the greatest QBs in the history of their franchises. In 1948, Bobby Layne was the third pick overall, and the creator of the two minute drill made the Detroit Lions the team of the 1950's en route to three titles and prompt enshrinement in Canton.

The most decorated QB of any top overall draft pick is Terry Bradshaw with his four NFL rings in six years, while the longest sustained success of any number one pick is Elway, getting to six SBs from 1986 to 1998. (Unitas got to the big game in 1958 and 1970, the first to do it over more than a decade's span of time, while Brady obviously stands alone for breaking the 15 year interval.)

Brady has made it very clear for the last 19 years that getting picked so low in the draft was the major (and now self sustaining) driving force in his determination to prove himself. (Montana never lost that chip on his shoulder either, and remains the second best QB behind Len Dawson in Chiefs history 60 years into the existence of their franchise.)
 
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Jun 10, 2013
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Well, Week 1 has concluded and it was quite an eventful one!

I feel the year is off to a much better start than the last one, which I felt was a big disappointment compared to the one before. Even though we got to see the emergence of Mahomes and the reemergence of Luck, we also had to contend with:

-Eags, Jags, and Vikes grossly underperforming.
-Dallas and Raiders continuing their slumps from the year before.
-A new "roughing the passing" rule change that dumbfounded fans, players, and refs alike.
-A flood of new rookie QBs struggling to adapt to the pros.
-Jimmy G. getting injured straightaway into the season.


For me, the biggest story right now is the seeming reemergence of Wentz, Prescott, and Carr as elite QBs. All 3 are damn exciting when they're at their best, and I truly believe the sport has suffered for their slumps over the past year or so. For the first time in a while, I'm actually looking forward to seeing their teams play - especially any time they play each other.
 
Jun 10, 2013
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(How the hell do the horrendous Jets only score six points off of four first half turnovers from the hideous Bills, none on offense? A shitty kicker doesn't help. Buffalo's defense looks solid though.)
I actually have hopes that the Bills can be a fairly decent team this season. In addition to their sold D, they also have some decent weapons on offense and Josh Allen has shown himself to be gutty, resilient, and able to make big plays (with both his arm and feet) in the clutch. If he could just improve his polish and consistency...
 
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Jun 4, 2012
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Yeah, that is true, but Brady has turned out a bit different than most QBs selected that late. He is a phenomenon of sorts. Still playing well at 42, 6 SB wins, and coming in as an unheralded player - it is sort of mind boggling.
Oh yeah, I mean it's basically unprecedented in any team sport that I can think of.
 
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Jack

P4P Star
Jul 29, 2012
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I think the issue with the NFL draft is that there's too much emphasis placed on physical attributes. Just at the Seahawks, Russell Wilson should have been a first round pick but dropped to the third because of his height, Bobby Wagner was considered undersized and he's the best linebacker in the sport, Poona Ford is an excellent run stuffing lineman but he was considered too small for the position so went undrafted. Doug Baldwin went undrafted too because he benched 6 reps, ran a 4.48 40 yard dash and was 5'9", yet he was a brilliant WR.

For me, any character issues should always be a red flag but beyond that, I'd rather take a guy who is a couple of inches shorter, has less of a wingspan, doesn't quite have the speed, has small hands etc., but has a good brain over someone who is a physical beast. If you did a combine of all WRs now, Larry Fitzgerald would grade very low yet he's twice the player many others are, due to his intelligence, route running, hands etc., but because he's lost pace, won't be able to jump as high and so on, would suffer for it. It's the wrong way to go at it, it's overly simplistic.

Brady should have been drafted earlier in the draft. His combine was unflattering though and scouts obviously obsessed over his 5.28 40 yard dash, an irrelevant statistic for a QB in that mould. From his draft profile: "Poor build. Very skinny and narrow. Ended the '99 season weighing 195 pounds and still looks like a rail at 211. Looks a little frail and lacks great physical stature and strength."
 
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May 8, 2013
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Brady should have been drafted earlier in the draft. His combine was unflattering though and scouts obviously obsessed over his 5.28 40 yard dash, an irrelevant statistic for a QB in that mould. From his draft profile: "Poor build. Very skinny and narrow. Ended the '99 season weighing 195 pounds and still looks like a rail at 211. Looks a little frail and lacks great physical stature and strength."
In retrospect, that is one of the worst evaluations of a draft candidate ever.
 

Duo

Bosomus Maximus
Jun 14, 2012
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I think the issue with the NFL draft is that there's too much emphasis placed on physical attributes. Just at the Seahawks, Russell Wilson should have been a first round pick but dropped to the third because of his height, Bobby Wagner was considered undersized and he's the best linebacker in the sport, Poona Ford is an excellent run stuffing lineman but he was considered too small for the position so went undrafted. Doug Baldwin went undrafted too because he benched 6 reps, ran a 4.48 40 yard dash and was 5'9", yet he was a brilliant WR.

For me, any character issues should always be a red flag but beyond that, I'd rather take a guy who is a couple of inches shorter, has less of a wingspan, doesn't quite have the speed, has small hands etc., but has a good brain over someone who is a physical beast. If you did a combine of all WRs now, Larry Fitzgerald would grade very low yet he's twice the player many others are, due to his intelligence, route running, hands etc., but because he's lost pace, won't be able to jump as high and so on, would suffer for it. It's the wrong way to go at it, it's overly simplistic.

Brady should have been drafted earlier in the draft. His combine was unflattering though and scouts obviously obsessed over his 5.28 40 yard dash, an irrelevant statistic for a QB in that mould. From his draft profile: "Poor build. Very skinny and narrow. Ended the '99 season weighing 195 pounds and still looks like a rail at 211. Looks a little frail and lacks great physical stature and strength."
Intangibles just aren't accounted for, as you said.

Danny Abramowitz, the first player to catch a pass in over 100 straight games, typically ran a 5.2 40 yard dash. Raymond Berry did it in 4.8 and that was enough for him to rip the NFL apart with Unitas.

Eddie LeBaron was the shortest QB to ever make the Pro Bowl (3X), a ball handling wizard who's credited by many as remaining the greatest play action passer ever. In 1958, a year Unitas won his first title, it was the Little General who became the NFL's top rated QB with the Redskins, an exciting and reliable QB on a series of otherwise weak teams. Revered in both Washington and Dallas, he was the first QB in Cowboys history in 1960, coming out of retirement and putting his law practice on hold to get the new Dallas franchise going and set up Don Meredith to take over the reigns. Left the NFL in 1950 to get wounded twice and be awarded the Bronze Star for front line heroism as a USMC Lieutenant in Korea for a two year hitch, and clearly demonstrates that fearlessness on the field. (This was a different era though. LeBaron was admired and respected by his fellow combat veterans on the field, like HOF defenders Chuck Bednarik, Art Donovan and Gino Marchetti.):

 
May 8, 2013
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Intangibles just aren't accounted for, as you said.

Danny Abramowitz, the first player to catch a pass in over 100 straight games, typically ran a 5.2 40 yard dash. Raymond Berry did it in 4.8 and that was enough for him to rip the NFL apart with Unitas.

Eddie LeBaron was the shortest QB to ever make the Pro Bowl (3X), a ball handling wizard who's credited by many as remaining the greatest play action passer ever. In 1958, a year Unitas won his first title, it was the Little General who became the NFL's top rated QB with the Redskins, an exciting and reliable QB on a series of otherwise weak teams. Revered in both Washington and Dallas, he was the first QB in Cowboys history in 1960, coming out of retirement and putting his law practice on hold to get the new Dallas franchise going and set up Don Meredith to take over the reigns. Left the NFL in 1950 to get wounded twice and be awarded the Bronze Star for front line heroism as a USMC Lieutenant in Korea for a two year hitch, and clearly demonstrates that fearlessness on the field. (This was a different era though. LeBaron was admired and respected by his fellow combat veterans on the field, like HOF defenders Chuck Bednarik, Art Donovan and Gino Marchetti.):

LeBaron played in college at Pacific, a school of around 4,000 students, on top of it all.
 
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May 8, 2013
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Why would anyone have picked Brady high?
Knowing what we now know? Because the guy is a phenomenon, arguably the best NFL QB ever.

Based on that draft evaluation that I mentioned before, nobody would have. And they didn't. As I said, in retrospect, it was a terrible evaluation, since Brady greatly exceeded the expectations that are implied in that eval. "Looks a little frail and lacks great physical stature and strength"? The guy is playing elite level QB in the NFL at the age of 42. You cannot be more wrong than whomever wrote that evaluation.
 

mandela

CHB Führer
May 16, 2013
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Knowing what we now know? Because the guy is a phenomenon, arguably the best NFL QB ever.

Based on that draft evaluation that I mentioned before, nobody would have. And they didn't. As I said, in retrospect, it was a terrible evaluation, since Brady greatly exceeded the expectations that are implied in that eval. "Looks a little frail and lacks great physical stature and strength"? The guy is playing elite level QB in the NFL at the age of 42. You cannot be more wrong than whomever wrote that evaluation.
The evaluation was accurate though.

He did look frail and did lack the strength and stature of others.

The evaluation isn't the issue. It's the fact that these things simply don't even consider the intangibles that are all infinitely more important than physical attributes.
 
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May 8, 2013
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The evaluation was accurate though.

He did look frail and did lack the strength and stature of others.

The evaluation isn't the issue. It's the fact that these things simply don't even consider the intangibles that are all infinitely more important than physical attributes.
If the evaluation did not consider the appropriate aspects that influence how a prospect can be made into an NFL QB, the evaluation is by definition terrible. They rated him on the wrong things.

The purpose of the eval is to help guide good draft picks. It did not accomplish its purpose.

It was obviously way off the mark with regard to Brady. He has been fairly durable playing a position that chews up a lot of people. His "look" didn't matter, and the eval probably helped drop him in the draft. He has played in 270 regular season games, 40 playoff games, and 9 Super Bowl games. 319 total games in the NFL at QB position is amazing. Only one serious knee injury in all that time. The rest he has played through.

How many teams regret passing on him? More than a few, I'd bet.
 
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