Yes and no historically, but put a gun to my head and demand a yes or no answer, I'd say no because of the next paragraph.Are the top QBs typically high picks?
That's a srs question, btw.
I actually have hopes that the Bills can be a fairly decent team this season. In addition to their sold D, they also have some decent weapons on offense and Josh Allen has shown himself to be gutty, resilient, and able to make big plays (with both his arm and feet) in the clutch. If he could just improve his polish and consistency...(How the hell do the horrendous Jets only score six points off of four first half turnovers from the hideous Bills, none on offense? A shitty kicker doesn't help. Buffalo's defense looks solid though.)
Oh yeah, I mean it's basically unprecedented in any team sport that I can think of.Yeah, that is true, but Brady has turned out a bit different than most QBs selected that late. He is a phenomenon of sorts. Still playing well at 42, 6 SB wins, and coming in as an unheralded player - it is sort of mind boggling.
In retrospect, that is one of the worst evaluations of a draft candidate ever.Brady should have been drafted earlier in the draft. His combine was unflattering though and scouts obviously obsessed over his 5.28 40 yard dash, an irrelevant statistic for a QB in that mould. From his draft profile: "Poor build. Very skinny and narrow. Ended the '99 season weighing 195 pounds and still looks like a rail at 211. Looks a little frail and lacks great physical stature and strength."
Intangibles just aren't accounted for, as you said.I think the issue with the NFL draft is that there's too much emphasis placed on physical attributes. Just at the Seahawks, Russell Wilson should have been a first round pick but dropped to the third because of his height, Bobby Wagner was considered undersized and he's the best linebacker in the sport, Poona Ford is an excellent run stuffing lineman but he was considered too small for the position so went undrafted. Doug Baldwin went undrafted too because he benched 6 reps, ran a 4.48 40 yard dash and was 5'9", yet he was a brilliant WR.
For me, any character issues should always be a red flag but beyond that, I'd rather take a guy who is a couple of inches shorter, has less of a wingspan, doesn't quite have the speed, has small hands etc., but has a good brain over someone who is a physical beast. If you did a combine of all WRs now, Larry Fitzgerald would grade very low yet he's twice the player many others are, due to his intelligence, route running, hands etc., but because he's lost pace, won't be able to jump as high and so on, would suffer for it. It's the wrong way to go at it, it's overly simplistic.
Brady should have been drafted earlier in the draft. His combine was unflattering though and scouts obviously obsessed over his 5.28 40 yard dash, an irrelevant statistic for a QB in that mould. From his draft profile: "Poor build. Very skinny and narrow. Ended the '99 season weighing 195 pounds and still looks like a rail at 211. Looks a little frail and lacks great physical stature and strength."
LeBaron played in college at Pacific, a school of around 4,000 students, on top of it all.Intangibles just aren't accounted for, as you said.
Danny Abramowitz, the first player to catch a pass in over 100 straight games, typically ran a 5.2 40 yard dash. Raymond Berry did it in 4.8 and that was enough for him to rip the NFL apart with Unitas.
Eddie LeBaron was the shortest QB to ever make the Pro Bowl (3X), a ball handling wizard who's credited by many as remaining the greatest play action passer ever. In 1958, a year Unitas won his first title, it was the Little General who became the NFL's top rated QB with the Redskins, an exciting and reliable QB on a series of otherwise weak teams. Revered in both Washington and Dallas, he was the first QB in Cowboys history in 1960, coming out of retirement and putting his law practice on hold to get the new Dallas franchise going and set up Don Meredith to take over the reigns. Left the NFL in 1950 to get wounded twice and be awarded the Bronze Star for front line heroism as a USMC Lieutenant in Korea for a two year hitch, and clearly demonstrates that fearlessness on the field. (This was a different era though. LeBaron was admired and respected by his fellow combat veterans on the field, like HOF defenders Chuck Bednarik, Art Donovan and Gino Marchetti.):
Knowing what we now know? Because the guy is a phenomenon, arguably the best NFL QB ever.Why would anyone have picked Brady high?
The evaluation was accurate though.Knowing what we now know? Because the guy is a phenomenon, arguably the best NFL QB ever.
Based on that draft evaluation that I mentioned before, nobody would have. And they didn't. As I said, in retrospect, it was a terrible evaluation, since Brady greatly exceeded the expectations that are implied in that eval. "Looks a little frail and lacks great physical stature and strength"? The guy is playing elite level QB in the NFL at the age of 42. You cannot be more wrong than whomever wrote that evaluation.
If the evaluation did not consider the appropriate aspects that influence how a prospect can be made into an NFL QB, the evaluation is by definition terrible. They rated him on the wrong things.The evaluation was accurate though.
He did look frail and did lack the strength and stature of others.
The evaluation isn't the issue. It's the fact that these things simply don't even consider the intangibles that are all infinitely more important than physical attributes.