Which companies will still exist and which will be extinct 50 years from now?

Haggis

CHB World Championship People's Champion
May 16, 2013
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Reversing cameras were first introduced in 1956 and became mainstream with the Nissan infinity Q45.

Satnavs have been in cars since it was first out in an American car called guidestar in 1995.

So if it taking 20 years for the technology that was available in the 90s to become so widespread you think they are today's technology again what on earth leads you to believe that technology such as driverless cars will become mainstream in the next 20 years given that there is an awful lot less security and safety measures needed for a parking sensor or satnav than there is for a driverless car picking you up drunk from the pub?
:rofl

Seriously?

:hat
 

Haggis

CHB World Championship People's Champion
May 16, 2013
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I personally don't see that kind of advancement in the next 20 years. What's funny about that?
You trying to tell me that reversing cameras became a thing in the 1950s, for a start. :thumbsup

:hat
 
May 19, 2013
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You trying to tell me that reversing cameras became a thing in the 1950s, for a start. :thumbsup

:hat
That's not what I said at all. I said that they were first introduced into a car in 1956. They became mainstream in 2000. Which goes against you referencing them as modern technology and a sign of advancement in the last 20 years.

But if you would rather misrepresent what I said than respond to it then fair enough I suppose.
 

Haggis

CHB World Championship People's Champion
May 16, 2013
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That's not what I said at all. I said that they were first introduced into a car in 1956. They became mainstream in 2000. Which goes against you referencing them as modern technology and a sign of advancement in the last 20 years.

But if you would rather misrepresent what I said than respond to it then fair enough I suppose.
Come on, man.

They were displayed as a concept design in the 1950s.

They were not "mainstream" in 2000, they were an optional feature on a specific line of luxury car.

NOW they are mainstream. Because it's no longer unusual for the average Joe to have a reversing camera in an everyday car that didn't come with a six figure price tag. :thumbsup

:hat
 
May 19, 2013
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Come on, man.

They were displayed as a concept design in the 1950s.

They were not "mainstream" in 2000, they were an optional feature on a specific line of luxury car.

NOW they are mainstream. Because it's no longer unusual for the average Joe to have a reversing camera in an everyday car that didn't come with a six figure price tag. :thumbsup

:hat
Ok I'm not gonna get bogged down in regards to them because i was using them to back to my wider point.

If it's taking 20 years from them being around to becoming what you class as mainstream today. How can you see driverless cars collecting you from the pub or whatever hitting your definition of mainstream given you will have an incomparable amount of regulation and safety features?
 

Haggis

CHB World Championship People's Champion
May 16, 2013
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Ok I'm not gonna get bogged down in regards to them because i was using them to back to my wider point.

If it's taking 20 years from them being around to becoming what you class as mainstream today. How can you see driverless cars collecting you from the pub or whatever hitting your definition of mainstream given you will have an incomparable amount of regulation and safety features?
Driverless cars exist now. They didn't 20 years ago. What makes you assume that they won't rapidly become more prevalent?

:hat
 
May 19, 2013
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Driverless cars exist now. They didn't 20 years ago. What makes you assume that they won't rapidly become more prevalent?

:hat
I've just spent the last few posts telling you why I don't think they will. If it's taking 20 years for parking cameras to become as common as they have then I don't think it's possible that you will be collected from the pub by your car after pushing a button on an app. Given that is obviously a far more complex thing which will also require some degree of regulation and maybe even law changes in some cases.

Now I've explained that again can you now elaborate on your opinion they will be able to? What makes you think this? How do you see the regulation and safety features being overcome within a relatively short space of time for a huge change in how most of the world gets from A to B?
 

Haggis

CHB World Championship People's Champion
May 16, 2013
33,078
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I've just spent the last few posts telling you why I don't think they will. If it's taking 20 years for parking cameras to become as common as they have then I don't think it's possible that you will be collected from the pub by your car after pushing a button on an app. Given that is obviously a far more complex thing which will also require some degree of regulation and maybe even law changes in some cases.

Now I've explained that again can you now elaborate on your opinion they will be able to? What makes you think this? How do you see the regulation and safety features being overcome within a relatively short space of time for a huge change in how most of the world gets from A to B?
20 years ago, I didn't think I would now have a device in my pocket that within 30 seconds, I could press a couple of buttons and have a random stranger show up in his personal car within 10 minutes, take me to wherever I want to go and drop me off, and I would never give him any cash or even arrange a bank transfer. Oh and a satellite would keep track of every metre I travelled, to keep me safe.

But here we are. :thumbsup

:hat
 
May 19, 2013
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20 years ago, I didn't think I would now have a device in my pocket that within 30 seconds, I could press a couple of buttons and have a random stranger show up in his personal car within 10 minutes, take me to wherever I want to go and drop me off, and I would never give him any cash or even arrange a bank transfer. Oh and a satellite would keep track of every metre I travelled, to keep me safe.

But here we are. :thumbsup

:hat
What has any of that got to do with driverless cars and my question to you in how you see this being regulated?

If I say I think in 20 years 10% of the human population will live on the moon. Then reference the fact that we've been there and mention Uber does that make my opinion any more likely?

I think the time may have come to agree to disagree on this because your constantly looking for me to defend my opinion while at the same time being as generic as possible with your own so it's an exercise in futility at this point because while I am happy to discuss it further ultimately neither of us can be proven right until 20 years from now and I cannot speak for you but chances are I'm not going to remember this conversation.
 

Haggis

CHB World Championship People's Champion
May 16, 2013
33,078
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What has any of that got to do with driverless cars and my question to you in how you see this being regulated?

If I say I think in 20 years 10% of the human population will live on the moon. Then reference the fact that we've been there and mention Uber does that make my opinion any more likely?

I think the time may have come to agree to disagree on this because your constantly looking for me to defend my opinion while at the same time being as generic as possible with your own so it's an exercise in futility at this point because while I am happy to discuss it further ultimately neither of us can be proven right until 20 years from now and I cannot speak for you but chances are I'm not going to remember this conversation.
It seems likely that 20 years from now, driverless cars will be common enough to not cause comment. They are already on public roads now, and they will EXPLODE as soon as it is feasible to move goods by driverless trucks that never need to stop for food or sleep, and that don't require an hourly wage to be paid to the driver.

There are still some hurdles to be overcome with some environments (snow in particular), but the main barriers at this point are legislative.

20 years is a loooooooooong time. Google was founded 20 years ago, look at their impact on society now.

:hat
 
Reactions: CJRK
May 19, 2013
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It seems likely that 20 years from now, driverless cars will be common enough to not cause comment. They are already on public roads now, and they will EXPLODE as soon as it is feasible to move goods by driverless trucks that never need to stop for food or sleep, and that don't require an hourly wage to be paid to the driver.

There are still some hurdles to be overcome with some environments (snow in particular), but the main barriers at this point are legislative.

20 years is a loooooooooong time. Google was founded 20 years ago, look at their impact on society now.

:hat
We shall find out. If you are right feel free to quote me and I will have my car send your car a kudos.
 

Haggis

CHB World Championship People's Champion
May 16, 2013
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Also, I doubt that you'll be at the pub and send a text to your car telling it to come and pick you up. I would expect it to look like you don't have a car, and you sent a message telling the nearest car owned by the company you have an account with, to come pick you up. It'll be 600m down the road, not 10 miles away like your house is.

:hat
 

Haggis

CHB World Championship People's Champion
May 16, 2013
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Lime scooters have gotten big here in the last few months. The company scattered hundreds of these green fuckers all over the city:



You download the app and it'll show you exactly where the nearest one is. You go to it, pay $1 to unlock it, then it's 30c/min. You go to where you're going, then click stop on the app and just leave it. Someone will be along shortly, either to use it themselves or take it back to the warehouse to charge it. You see them everywhere now - in parks, outside shops, everywhere. I think that's what it'll look like, rather than calling your car to you from your house.

:hat
 
Reactions: Trail
May 19, 2013
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Also, I doubt that you'll be at the pub and send a text to your car telling it to come and pick you up. I would expect it to look like you don't have a car, and you sent a message telling the nearest car owned by the company you have an account with, to come pick you up. It'll be 600m down the road, not 10 miles away like your house is.

:hat
If the furthest pub in Ireland is 10 miles away from you then you live in one of the most remote parts of the country haha.
 

Haggis

CHB World Championship People's Champion
May 16, 2013
33,078
10,665
If the furthest pub in Ireland is 10 miles away from you then you live in one of the most remote parts of the country haha.
I don't know about you, but I have friends who live on the other side of the city.

:hat
 
Jun 6, 2012
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It seems likely that 20 years from now, driverless cars will be common enough to not cause comment. They are already on public roads now, and they will EXPLODE as soon as it is feasible to move goods by driverless trucks that never need to stop for food or sleep, and that don't require an hourly wage to be paid to the driver.

There are still some hurdles to be overcome with some environments (snow in particular), but the main barriers at this point are legislative.

20 years is a loooooooooong time. Google was founded 20 years ago, look at their impact on society now.

:hat
Nope, the main barriers are technological & not legislative . Waymo are the world leaders in autonomous driving & have recently stated that level 5 (fully autonomous with no need for drivers at all) in all conditions, on all roads may never happen & is way beyond the horizon of current technology
 
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Haggis

CHB World Championship People's Champion
May 16, 2013
33,078
10,665
Nope, the main barriers are technological & not legislative . Waymo are the world leaders in autonomous driving & have recently stated that level 5 (fully autonomous with no need for drivers at all) in all conditions, on all roads may never happen & is way beyond the horizon of current technology
I have a hard time accepting these type of "never happen - impossible" statements from industry experts.

I mean, it wasn't long ago that it was impossible for us to ever achieve heavier than air flight. Or to carry a computer in our pocket.

Halfway through the 20th century, it was considered impossible (or at least, effectively impossible) to send a man to the moon and bring him back alive.

A 100% safety record on all roads, in all conditions, in all countries? Yes, that's unrealistic.

But I'm pretty sure that today's most advanced self driving car could drive itself the full length of State Highway 1 from one end of New Zealand to the other. Why not? The roads are orderly, well maintained, well marked and well mapped. Pedestrians in cities wait for crossing lights. And there's no snow. I don't see self-sufficient cars having much of a problem here 20 years from now, if the legislation allowed them to operate.

:hat
 
Jun 4, 2013
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Wait til Volkswagen find out about buses. Game changer.

I pay more to own a car so I don't have to wait round on buses and share my space with other people an if I decide half way through my journey that I'd rather go somewhere else or to not bother at all then I just turn round.

I'm with you there. A car is a very personal thing and I love the comfort of my own car especially commuting and the space if gives me as I wake up on the way to work.

But....(there's always a caveat he he) as ease of use in automated cabbing picks up so might costs of individual car ownsership. At some point the cost of a car will be prohibitivly expensie becuase so many people will (or MIGHT!) opt for the pay as you ride model that there will be an economic shift.

What I mean is....right now...you...me ..him ..your neighbour.....colleague...... we can afford our mortgage or rent and living costs along with a car. If people stop buying cars, paying MOTs, servicing and what have you the additional savings will inflate other prices becuase people being people will use that additional cash.....and it'll likely go to house costs such as rents forcing even people like you and me to use thiese ride hailing services to make ends meet. Economies are finely balanced things based on millions of people. Waves of habit can force others into the same boat.

And that isn't even to say there may be scaling bands for ride hailing services. I've you pay more to get a car to yourself. Little less for a car for 2. Less still for a minibus. Less still for a large bus.

I can't see this not happening becuase train lines are maxed out and roads and cars are currently used innedficiently.

We'll stake a 5 quid wager and you can pay me 30 years from now in the care home. Deal? ;)