Which companies will still exist and which will be extinct 50 years from now?

Jun 4, 2013
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Nope, the main barriers are technological & not legislative . Waymo are the world leaders in autonomous driving & have recently stated that level 5 (fully autonomous with no need for drivers at all) in all conditions, on all roads may never happen & is way beyond the horizon of current technology
They said the car would never replace horse and cart......

And I'll take an automated car over a woman driver any day :) (joke but you know what I mean, people in general).

And that's not to say there will never be driverless cars. There may well be extreme cases where people are on stand by. But as a rule of thumb they will become mainstream. A computer in a car with all its gizmos in control knowing the weight, momentum, stopping distances etc I would say is safer than a person in snowy conditions. It will drive at a speed that allows distance and breaking measures at a controlled speed. Humans don't do that and such things are the root causes of most accidents.
 
Jun 6, 2012
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I have a hard time accepting these type of "never happen - impossible" statements from industry experts.

I mean, it wasn't long ago that it was impossible for us to ever achieve heavier than air flight. Or to carry a computer in our pocket.

Halfway through the 20th century, it was considered impossible (or at least, effectively impossible) to send a man to the moon and bring him back alive.

A 100% safety record on all roads, in all conditions, in all countries? Yes, that's unrealistic.

But I'm pretty sure that today's most advanced self driving car could drive itself the full length of State Highway 1 from one end of New Zealand to the other. Why not? The roads are orderly, well maintained, well marked and well mapped. Pedestrians in cities wait for crossing lights. And there's no snow. I don't see self-sufficient cars having much of a problem here 20 years from now, if the legislation allowed them to operate.

:hat
Highways/motorways aren't the problem, that's a fairly simple solution. Urban driving in traffic is immensely more complex & challenging

The biggest issue is that LIDAR, which is crucial for autonomous driving just doesn't work in the rain & snow. Currently there's no way around it & without some sort of revolutionary breakthrough will remain a limiting factor

Its very difficult to predict the future & in some areasprogress will either be slow or non-existent. You mentioned the space race & people thought we'd have a moon base & men on Mars by now
 
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Jun 6, 2012
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They said the car would never replace horse and cart......

And I'll take an automated car over a woman driver any day :) (joke but you know what I mean, people in general).

And that's not to say there will never be driverless cars. There may well be extreme cases where people are on stand by. But as a rule of thumb they will become mainstream. A computer in a car with all its gizmos in control knowing the weight, momentum, stopping distances etc I would say is safer than a person in snowy conditions. It will drive at a speed that allows distance and breaking measures at a controlled speed. Humans don't do that and such things are the root causes of most accidents.
You don't really understand how autonomous vehicles operate, look at the recent statements from the head of Waymo. They've spent a decade & billions on this
 

Haggis

CHB World Championship People's Champion
May 16, 2013
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Highways/motorways aren't the problem, that's a fairly simple solution. Urban driving in traffic is immensely more complex & challenging

The biggest issue is that LIDAR, which is crucial for autonomous driving just doesn't work in the rain & snow. Currently there's no way around it & without some sort of revolutionary breakthrough will remain a limiting factor
New Zealand doesn't really get extreme weather conditions in its major cities, and this strikes me as the kind of thing where the car can easily tell the driver to take over manual control or continue on auto but without insurance coverage. Or something. I don't fucking know. :lol:

Its very difficult to predict the future & in some areasprogress will either be slow or non-existent.
That's true.

You mentioned the space race & people thought we'd have a moon base & men on Mars by now
If the political will was there, we would have had a moon base. Men on Mars is obviously badly more difficult for a number of reasons. But the reason we don't have a permanent human presence on the moon is due to lack of political/economic will, not lack of ability.

:hat
 
Jun 6, 2012
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New Zealand doesn't really get extreme weather conditions in its major cities, and this strikes me as the kind of thing where the car can easily tell the driver to take over manual control or continue on auto but without insurance coverage. Or something. I don't fucking know. :lol:



That's true.



If the political will was there, we would have had a moon base. Men on Mars is obviously badly more difficult for a number of reasons. But the reason we don't have a permanent human presence on the moon is due to lack of political/economic will, not lack of ability.

:hat
If you need the driver to take over it isn't a level 5 fully autonomous driverless car
 

Haggis

CHB World Championship People's Champion
May 16, 2013
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Also, "without some sort of revolutionary breakthrough"...... well, who's to say that won't happen? 20 years ago, GPS systems were cutting edge military tech, cost thousands and thousands of dollars and couldn't plan a route or do much of anything other than broadcast its location. Now my watch has one, my phone has one, my car has one.

And that's just 20 years. What about 100 years? 100 years ago, we had only just figured out how to make a (sort-of) reliable gasoline engine. Now we have self-driving electric cars taking directions from unmanned satellites orbiting the Earth. And technology is improving vastly quicker than it was 100 years ago. Who's to say that the seemingly insurmountable challenges of 2019 won't be looked at as just bumps in the road come 2069?

:hat
 

Haggis

CHB World Championship People's Champion
May 16, 2013
31,868
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If you need the driver to take over it isn't a level 5 fully autonomous driverless car
Fine, but self-driving technology is literally not even as old as the shirt I'm wearing right now is. :lol: :thumbsup

Look at how far it's come in the last 10 years, and how much momentum it's gotten in that time. Who at this point can say with confidence exactly what is and isn't possible with another 10, 20, 50, 100 years of development?

:hat
 

Trail

R.I.P. Joe Rein
May 24, 2013
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Lime scooters have gotten big here in the last few months. The company scattered hundreds of these green fuckers all over the city:



You download the app and it'll show you exactly where the nearest one is. You go to it, pay $1 to unlock it, then it's 30c/min. You go to where you're going, then click stop on the app and just leave it. Someone will be along shortly, either to use it themselves or take it back to the warehouse to charge it. You see them everywhere now - in parks, outside shops, everywhere. I think that's what it'll look like, rather than calling your car to you from your house.

:hat
What a cool idea!
 

NSFW

Freedom Fighter
May 14, 2013
20,699
9,300
Castle Duckula.
I'm with you there. A car is a very personal thing and I love the comfort of my own car especially commuting and the space if gives me as I wake up on the way to work.

But....(there's always a caveat he he) as ease of use in automated cabbing picks up so might costs of individual car ownsership. At some point the cost of a car will be prohibitivly expensie becuase so many people will (or MIGHT!) opt for the pay as you ride model that there will be an economic shift.

What I mean is....right now...you...me ..him ..your neighbour.....colleague...... we can afford our mortgage or rent and living costs along with a car. If people stop buying cars, paying MOTs, servicing and what have you the additional savings will inflate other prices becuase people being people will use that additional cash.....and it'll likely go to house costs such as rents forcing even people like you and me to use thiese ride hailing services to make ends meet. Economies are finely balanced things based on millions of people. Waves of habit can force others into the same boat.

And that isn't even to say there may be scaling bands for ride hailing services. I've you pay more to get a car to yourself. Little less for a car for 2. Less still for a minibus. Less still for a large bus.

I can't see this not happening becuase train lines are maxed out and roads and cars are currently used innedficiently.

We'll stake a 5 quid wager and you can pay me 30 years from now in the care home. Deal? ;)

If it comes to the point where working and not being able to afford to run a car is the case then we are in a bigger pickle than we hoped ad thier really isn't much point in carrying on at all.
 
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Haggis

CHB World Championship People's Champion
May 16, 2013
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What a cool idea!
That are fun as hell when you're drunk. They max out at I think about 30kph, which is a decent clip on a little scooter. But they are everywhere, the public has really responded to them.

:hat
 
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Jun 6, 2012
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Fine, but self-driving technology is literally not even as old as the shirt I'm wearing right now is. :lol::thumbsup

Look at how far it's come in the last 10 years, and how much momentum it's gotten in that time. Who at this point can say with confidence exactly what is and isn't possible with another 10, 20, 50, 100 years of development?

:hat
You thought it was only limited by legislation which isn't true, I don't think we'll see full autonomy within the next 10-20 years, if at all. Anything beyond that timeframe is just uninformed speculation
 
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Trail

R.I.P. Joe Rein
May 24, 2013
30,189
6,653
That are fun as hell when you're drunk. They max out at I think about 30kph, which is a decent clip on a little scooter. But they are everywhere, the public has really responded to them.

:hat
I'd be straight on one of those after a few beers Haggis. You could race all your mates!!!!
 
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Jun 4, 2013
5,095
1,913
Also, "without some sort of revolutionary breakthrough"...... well, who's to say that won't happen? 20 years ago, GPS systems were cutting edge military tech, cost thousands and thousands of dollars and couldn't plan a route or do much of anything other than broadcast its location. Now my watch has one, my phone has one, my car has one.

And that's just 20 years. What about 100 years? 100 years ago, we had only just figured out how to make a (sort-of) reliable gasoline engine. Now we have self-driving electric cars taking directions from unmanned satellites orbiting the Earth. And technology is improving vastly quicker than it was 100 years ago. Who's to say that the seemingly insurmountable challenges of 2019 won't be looked at as just bumps in the road come 2069?

:hat

To add to this this technological growth has really only happened in the west. Globalisation a going to up the speed of development 10 fold because in simple numbers more people are researching more things