[megavolt]

shoutout to @tliang1000's odds thread gave me the idea

VOTE BEFORE READING BELOW

To set a good baseline for our own personal betting, I'm curious what everyone thinks the actual odds are of each fighter winning? I'll set up a poll.

Based on our thread compiling trainer opinions, their predictions range from heavy Mayweather favorite, many have it at a close edge to Mayweather, some say 50/50; some even have Pacquiao winning but I forget. The consensus is Mayweather is the favorite but the big question is by how much?

Our own CHB thread predicting absolute win predictions currently has Mayweather with 78 votes, Pacquiao with 30 votes, which converts to 72% Floyd, 38% Pacquiao. Note these don't reflect the actual odds sentiment of the voters, for example some may have voted mayweather but only with slight edge in their mind.

Lets list some odds: (I just googled it, anyone can contribute)

VegasInsider-
Floyd Mayweather -240 70%
Manny Pacquiao +200 33%

SkyBet-
Floyd Mayweather 4/11 73%
Manny Pacquiao 9/4 31%

Bodog-
Floyd Mayweather -225 69%
Manny Pacquiao +175 36%

Many of these odds translate to Pacquiao being somewhere between a 2/1 underdog (33% chance to win) and a 3/1 underdog (25% chance to win). Can capitalize if the true odds significantly differ from these

 

[PetetheKing]

80/20 And that's generous for Pac. 80-90 isn't a huge stretch but yes fight odds should be like -500 for Floyd in my estimation.

 

[megavolt]

80/20 And that's generous for Pac. 80-90 isn't a huge stretch but yes fight odds should be like -500 for Floyd in my estimation.

You think so? Most of the fighters who officially fought them both have it pretty close - Mosley, Hatton, DLH, hell Nacho has it at 55/45

 

[PetetheKing]

You think so? Most of the fighters who officially fought them both have it pretty close - Mosley, Hatton, DLH, hell Nacho has it at 55/45

I do. -400 odds for Floyd seem fair. -500 feels even more truthful. Maybe it's my pessimism. It's like when I'm rooting for a fighter I score rounds tougher for him sometimes. I just think Pac's lost too much physically. I haven't seen proof he could fight three full minutes of every round, and Mayweather's hand-speed is actually noticeably faster. I think Nacho probably makes valid points, but he's assuming the best of Pac, and I'm thinking there's a large part of his ego that wants Pac to have success considering the success his fighter had against him. Mosley & Hatton all favored Floyd. Every single expert is practically picking Floyd like it's a foregone conclusion. It's just a question of how close & exciting can Pac make it. DLH doesn't particularly like Floyd either. Oh, Cotto picked Pac because of his speed, and also because he's apart of Team Roach.

The bottom-line is Bradley made Pac dig down to win an 8-4 contest in their rematch. Pac looked heavy-legged, slower, and ended up throwing 200 punches less than in their first fight. And in the first fight Pac treated the fight like a sparring session. The Bradley performance was only impressive in the context that he just got stopped the year before, and he showed a more patient, calculating style. But that won't provide him any use in a match with Floyd. Pac has to turn back the clock. He needs to capture vintage form. I don't believe he can, but why should I?

Yeah, he looked sharp against Algieri. But he was out-boxing an inferior fighter from the center of the ring. He didn't have to press, throw a lot, or do all that much. The fight didn't show me enough or prove anything as far as what's left in Pac's tank.

When people are talking about Pac and his style they're talking about another person. I don't see that man as existing anymore, and when he gets out-boxed soundly, and looks shockingly slower than Floyd people are going to make a huge fuss about how past it Pac is after the fight. But at least I can say I was waving the flag long before the result of the fight.