Greetings, Wales. Apologies for being a little sporadic, recently, but anyone who has had a baby will understand I am sure. Anyway, I'm more or less back, now - albeit a little down on sleep - so let's go.
Luca Giacon vs Emiliano Marsili - Humph. The old 'crossroads' fights are tough to pick. Marsili looked pretty handy beating up on poor Derry Matthews a while back, certainly. He looked very solid, as if made of granite. But then, it was Derry Matthews, who seems a nice chap but is hardly a fighter to be mentioned when discussing the all-timers. So how much of a yardstick is that? Plus Marsili is at that point where people tend to ask 'will he age overnight?'. On a personal note I find this slightly despressing - he's two years younger than me! - but also a little tricky when it comes to picking an outcome. He's not coming off much that helps us - he has only fought once in over a year since the Matthews fight, and that was a six rounder over a guy with a losing record, a classic keep-busy fight. So he might well have looked okay - he dropped the guy - but it doesn't tell us much. So what of Giacon? An bit of an unknown quantity, to be honest. He has 19 KOs from 21 wins against no defeats, but the opposition has been pretty low-key. His first eight opponents only had nine wins between them - and that accounts for almost half his pro career. Dial in the fact that several of his subsequent opponents have had losing records and it all smacks a little of an untested fighter who has been knocking over bums to pad his record. Not the first time that that approach has led to a title shot, and it does not mean that he cannot win. However, Marsili is a clear step up in class. And let's not forget that Marsili is undefeated himself, which is a more impressive feat given that he has been fighting much more at title level. Giacon is pretty untested, but unfortunately Marsili doesn't have much of a dig on him - unless he's hitting Derry Matthews, at which point he suddenly appears a beast - so won't be able to blow the kid out.
So what do I think? I think Marsili, Bryn, as sometimes in life experience is what is called for, and Giacon is about to find that out the hard way. The manner of this defeat is harder to pick. Something is nagging at me saying that Marsili might just stop him mid-late... but this is Marsili, and Giacon looks pretty quick, and is not Derry Matthews, so I'll go with the better-odds bet and say that we're doing this the long way: Marsili wins, PTS